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Trump’s Ukraine ceasefire plan: What we know so far

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After more than three years of war, Ukraine has agreed to a U.S. proposal for an immediate ceasefire. The 30-day truce will come into effect if Russia signs up to the same terms, according to a joint statement from the Ukrainian and American governments.

Axar.az reports via Politico, here’s what we know so far:

1. The fighting could stop immediately — if Russia agrees

Trump’s team say they will now take the plan for a 30-day ceasefire to Moscow. “The ball is now in their court,” said Rubio. Russia has been delighted by Trump’s attitude so far, and the ceasefire does not impose any pre-conditions on the Kremlin, as far as is known, other than a pause in the fighting.
Under the outline ceasefire plan, the pause in the fighting would allow humanitarian steps, including the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of detained civilians “and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children,” the joint statement said.

2. Will Putin agree?

Moscow’s initial response wasn’t exactly enthusiastic. Speaking to Russia’s TASS state news service, foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said: “We do not rule out contacts with U.S. representatives over the next few days.”

Western officials have long been skeptical of whether Putin is really interested in long-term peace, even if he accepts a 30-day ceasefire. Russia has been gaining ground on the battlefield, with help from other countries including North Korea, China and Iran.

Putin has also set out demands for a lasting deal that appear to be impossible for Ukraine to accept, including a ban on European peacekeepers and international recognition for the territories occupied by Russia. Will he compromise on those terms just because Trump wants him to?

3. U.S. is sharing intelligence with Ukraine again

After taking the radical step of cutting off the supply of military kit and intelligence to Kyiv, the U.S. has now agreed to resume sharing its secret information. It will also restart “security assistance,” presumably a reference to military aid.

4. This is not a peace deal

The terms of the proposal are for a temporary truce that can be extended if both sides agree. Once fighting is paused, negotiations will begin immediately on the terms of a permanent peace. Both the U.S. and Ukraine have promised to name their negotiating teams as soon as possible.

5. This is not a minerals deal

Trump has made clear that he wants access to Ukraine’s reserves of critical minerals such as lithium, uranium and titanium. Zelenskyy had been expected to sign some sort of deal on mineral development rights for U.S. companies when he visited the White House two weeks ago, but that fell apart during an acrimonious public dispute with Trump and his Vice President JD Vance.

After the ceasefire plan announcement on Tuesday, Trump told reporters he would invite Zelenskyy back to the White House.

6. Ukraine has not given up any territory — yet

Ahead of the talks, Rubio warned Kyiv that it would need to make concessions, including on territory. But during the eight hours of discussions in Jeddah on Tuesday, the topic of ceding territory did not even come up, according to a Ukrainian official. The point is certain to be brought up, however, if substantive negotiations begin on a permanent settlement.

7. Trump has not agreed to provide security guarantees

The U.S. president has made clear that he is not inclined to guarantee “very much” by way of Ukraine’s future security, seeing this as a job for Europe, not America. Nothing in Tuesday’s joint statement suggests that has changed.

8. Europe should ‘be involved’

The statement said the Ukrainians wanted “European partners” to be involved in the peace process. It wasn’t clear that the U.S. side agreed to that point, however. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer were both quick to hail the progress toward peace in the talks.

9. What next?

Starmer will convene a meeting of European and other leaders on Saturday. He has been working with French President Emmanuel Macron to assemble a “coalition of the willing” — countries that are prepared to send troops as peacekeepers or provide other support to an international mission to uphold a permanent truce.
The U.S. is not part of these discussions, since Trump’s government has signaled there will be no American boots on the ground. A lot will hinge on whether Starmer and Macron’s coalition is strong enough to convince the Ukrainians it will stop Russia attacking, and neutral enough to convince Putin it’s not a threat.

Date
2025.03.12 / 12:12
Author
Axar.az
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