Despite initial fears of a global downturn following President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade war, the world economy remains unexpectedly strong.

Axar.az, citing The Economist, reports that six months after the conflict began, key economic indicators—from Goldman Sachs’s activity index to JPMorgan’s global PMI—show steady or improving growth.

The U.S. economy grew by 3.9% in Q3 2025, and only Finland is in recession among OECD countries.

The main reason: Trump’s tariffs turned out to be milder than expected, averaging just over 10% instead of the 28% initially threatened. In addition, loose fiscal policies, especially in the U.S., have boosted demand. Investors remain optimistic, with global stock markets at record highs and cyclical industries outperforming defensive ones.

Concerns about artificial intelligence and job losses appear overstated. Most recent U.S. investment in technology is not AI-related, and outside America, IT spending hasn’t driven growth. Labour markets remain stable, with OECD countries adding 3 million jobs in the first half of the year. Any U.S. slowdown may stem more from immigration restrictions than from AI automation.

Although consumer confidence is still below pre-pandemic levels and uncertainty over Trump’s policies persists, the predicted economic slump has not materialized. The global economy, for now, continues to show surprising resilience against trade wars, AI disruption, and policy uncertainty.