Axar.az presents an article “The Tieman Take” by John Samuel Tieman.

For my readers, especially my readers overseas, I have some brief thoughts on the changing dynamics of the U. S. presidential race. President Biden has dropped out. That changes almost everything. So here, for the moment, is the Tieman Take. Four points and a bit of speculation.

First, with 81-year-old Joe Biden gone, gone also are arguments about whether Biden is too old, feeble, and all that. 78-year-old Donald Trump is now the old man.

Two, Vice President Kamala Harris is almost assured of being the Democratic nominee. She will knit together the Barack Obama base and the Hillary Clinton base. That won't be hard. Why? If she wins, she will be the first female president and the second African-American.

Three, the Vice President owns the law and order argument. Kamala Harris is a former prosecutor and the former Attorney General of California. So her record, as someone who enforces the law, will be in stark contrast to Donald Trump's record as a convicted felon.

Fourth, Trump has done nothing to extend his base. Here is the problem with that. He lost to Hillary Clinton by 3,000,000 popular votes. (He won by a fluke of the Electoral College.) To Joe Biden, Donald Trump lost by 7,000,000 popular votes. Rather than trying to expand his base, Trump has doubled down on his core of support in the hope of repeating his electoral college victory. I think that is unlikely.

A lot of folks will be looking to see who Harris picks as her running mate. It's always fun to speculate about these matters. However, vice presidential nominees don't determine the race. The presidential candidate does. Vice presidential candidates are a bit like the king of England. They really can't do much to solve problems, but that doesn't stop them from making headaches. Tom Eagleton hurt the campaign of George McGovern, as did Dan Quayle when he ran with George H. W. Bush. That said, vice presidential candidates can help with carrying some states and some constituencies.

But, OK, let's have some fun. Let's speculate. A few are already being vetted. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly are among the Democrats asked to submit information about their finances, family histories and personal details. All three come from crucial states in the November election.

Roy Cooper climbed the ladder in politics, first in the state house, then the state senate, then he narrowly won his first race for governor. Throughout his time as governor, Cooper has clashed with lawmakers in the state legislature, where Republicans have a super-majority, over voting rights and abortion. Such clashes play well on the left.

Pennsylvania is a must-win. Josh Shapiro was elected governor in a landslide victory in 2022, defeating an election-denying, far-right state senator. During a stop in Philadelphia earlier this month, Harris called Shapiro a “great partner to the president and me.”

Mark Kelly has national name recognition. He is a former astronaut and a retired Navy captain. He flew 39 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm. He is the husband of former U. S. Representative Gabby Giffords, who suffered a grievous assassination attempt.

I have to admit my fondness for Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker. He is the heir to the Hyatt Hotel fortune. He was first elected in 2018. He was reelected in 2022 by more than 10 percentage points. He has fought for gun control. In 2023, Pritzker signed an extensive ban on firearms and high-capacity magazines. I come from neighboring Missouri. In the post-Roe v. Wade era, many women in my state are grateful to him for his leadership as his state contends with the increased demands for abortion care from women forced to leave Missouri and travel to Illinois.

Some folks have talked about California Governor Gavin Newsom. It won't be him. Kamala Harris is from California. Article II of the Constitution states, “The electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for two persons, of whom one at least shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves.” California's 54 electors could not vote for both Newsom and Harris.

Others mentioned are Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.