The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which has
ensured peace in Europe since the end of World War II, woke up
Wednesday to what seemed like a nightmare: an incoming U.S.
president who openly questions the value of the
alliance.
During his campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly criticized NATO,
calling the organization "obsolete." He also suggested that America
might not defend fellow NATO countries that didn't help reimburse
the U.S. for the cost of its troops and bases in Europe.
That threat strikes at the foundation of the organization: the
principle of mutual defense, that an attack on one is an attack on
all. Bruno Lete, a security analyst at the German Marshall Fund,
recalls scrolling through colleagues' social media posts the
morning after the American election.
"It was as if people would believe that it is the end of the
world," said Lete in an interview at the think tank's offices in
Brussels. "That it is the end of the trans-Atlantic bonds, that the
Americans will no longer have the back of Europe, that we basically
lost our only friend on the planet."
This coming week, European Union foreign and defense ministers
will meet in Brussels to discuss greater cooperation on defense and
security, according to analysts. The agenda has been in the works
for some time, but Trump's election has given it greater
urgency.
"In the hours we are living, there is, there will be, an
increasing 'demand of Europe' from our neighbors and from our
partners worldwide," said Federica Mogherini, the EU's foreign
policy chief, in a speech earlier this week. Then, in what seemed a
direct reference to the United States under a Trump administration,
Mogherini added: "There is and there will be a growing request for
a principled global security provider."
Trump's criticism that other NATO allies don't pay their fair
share is nothing new and he has a point. NATO has set a goal that
nations should spend the equivalent of 2 percent of their GDP on
defense, but most don't. However, the idea that the U.S. – the
dominant military force in NATO — might not defend an ally
frightened many in Brussels and beyond.
Among the most fearful NATO countries are Estonia, Latvia and
Lithuania, tiny nations that lie along the Baltic Sea and share
borders with Russia. The Soviet Union annexed the Baltics in World
War II, but they regained independence after the collapse of the
USSR. The countries joined NATO in 2004, which infuriated Russian
President Vladimir Putin.
In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, an autonomous region
of Ukraine. People in the Baltics worry that Russia could target
them next. That's why Britain announced last month it was sending
about 800 soldiers along with tanks and drones to Estonia as part
of a NATO effort to counter Russian aggression. The U.S. is heading
up another battle group in Poland; Canada will lead one in Latvia
and Germany, in Lithuania.
If Trump's doubts about NATO weren't enough to rattle the
Baltics, his complimentary remarks about Putin — a fierce critic of
NATO who has threatened repeatedly to "protect" Russian-speaking
minorities in the Baltics — has only added to their anxiety and a
sense that the liberal, democratic order on the continent is under
threat.
"I think the shock and the amazement in Europe is about how much
of a rupture president-elect Trump is compared to any other
American politicians since 1947," said Jonathan Eyal, international
director at the Royal United Services Institute, a military think
tank in London. Eyal said Trump is creating a dangerous "perception
that Washington no longer cares about its formal strategic
alliances."
Eyal says past American presidents were motivated by the shared
values of democracy and freedom that bind NATO nations together.
Trump, he says, is completely different. He sees the relationship
with NATO as transactional and is focused on what's in it for him
and the United States. Eyal says that has the Russians hoping that
Trump is the kind of leader willing to cut a geopolitical deal.
"I think there are a lot of people in Moscow who see the real
estate and property tycoon as being absolutely right and ready for
a division into the spheres of influence between Russia and the
United States," Eyal said in a phone interview.
Eyal emphasized he doesn't think Europe will be carved up, but
he worries about Trump creating misperceptions in the Kremlin.
Since Trump made many grand claims and criticisms during the
presidential race, analysts in Brussels hope his harsh words about
NATO were mostly campaign rhetoric. And they hope he will change
his mind about the military alliance when he attends a NATO summit
in Brussels scheduled for next year.
Lete, of the German Marshall Fund, suggested the organization
adopt a pragmatic approach and appeal to Trump's way of
thinking.
"NATO in fact could be described as an insurance policy for
American prosperity," says Lete. "Having these expensive U.S.
soldiers in Europe basically guarantees that American business
investments in Europe can operate in a stable environment."
"Mr. Trump has been a talented businessman," Lete continued. "I
do believe that he will understand that investments need to be
protected."