Without U.S. military aid, Ukraine has enough weapons to keep fighting at its current pace until the summer.

Axar.az reports that citing Wall Street Journal, after that, Kyiv could find itself short of ammunition and unable to use some of its most sophisticated weaponry.

Large weapons shipments the Biden administration sent or contracted for in its final months should be enough to enable the Ukrainians to keep fighting at their current rate at least until the middle of the year, said Celeste Wallander, a former senior Pentagon official.

Europe is preparing to try to make up the shortfall. In 2024, the European Union, the U.K. and Norway collectively supplied Ukraine with around $25 billion in military aid—more than the U.S. sent that year, according to European officials. The continent has substantially increased its production of artillery shells, and there are discussions for the EU to increase aid to $30 billion this year.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has sent nearly $70 billion in military aid, according to Zelensky. That is more than all of Ukraine’s other Western allies combined, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

But Ukraine has also built its own formidable munitions industry, which now produces $30 billion a year in weaponry, according to the country’s minister of strategic industry, a sixfold increase from a year earlier. In 2024, the country produced around 1.5 million drones, which have become its primary form of defense along the front line, allowing Kyiv to hold off Russian assaults while taking minimal casualties. This year, officials say, they plan to produce 3,000 missiles and 30,000 long-range drones.

Overall, Ukraine currently builds or finances about 55% of its military hardware. The U.S. supplies around 20%, while Europe supplies 25%, according to one Western official.

But some U.S. supplies—including advanced air-defense systems, surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, navigation systems and long-range rocket artillery—will be effectively impossible to replace in the short term. Europe simply doesn’t make enough—or, in some cases, any.

Once those U.S. supplies run out, Ukraine’s ability to conduct longer-range strikes, and to protect its own rear positions, would suffer, officials and analysts said.