Axar.az presents an article "What To Watch In 2024" by John Samuel Tieman.

I'm going to miss Nikki Haley. I longed to hate the former governor, a rather traditional Republican, for all the traditional Democratic reasons. Donald Trump will win the Republican's 2024 nomination for president. Joe Biden will be the Democrat.

So this old social studies teacher composed, especially for my readers overseas, this guide to important issues in 2024. Listed here are factors that are certain to impact the outcome of the race between now and November 5th. There is no particular order to my list.

Physical And Mental Health

Biden has an old man shuffle and that old man frozen face. Not a good look. Republicans make much of his gaffes. But Biden was a gaffe machine when he was 40. It's just him. It's worth noting his “State Of The Union” if there is doubt about his mental acuity. He also recently did well on a physical examination. For all that, he's 81. A lot that can go wrong.

Trump is 77. He is overweight and about a Dunkin' Donut away from a heart attack. The age question has not yet settled on Trump. That will change.

What has settled on Trump are questions about mental health. Trump displays characteristics that indicate malignant narcissism, or something akin to that. This is very different from Abraham Lincoln, for example, who likely suffered from depression. Under consideration with Trump is a disorder of such magnitude that it makes him dangerous. While Trump's hardcore is unwavering, independents may consider his mental health.

Christian Nationalism

In a recent Pew study, “Overall, six-in-ten U.S. Adults – including nearly seven-in-ten Christians – say they believe the founders 'originally intended' for the U. S. to be a Christian nation. And 45% of U.S. Adults – including about six-in-ten Christians – say they think the country 'should be' a Christian nation. A third say the U. S. 'is now' a Christian nation.” Many support the “Seven Mountains Mandate”, which calls for Christians to influence, and ultimately dominate, government, media, business, the family, education, entertainment, and, of course, religion. From their perspective, the contest is not Republican versus Democrat. It's the godly versus the ungodly. These voters support Trump. While they will never vote for Biden, something could happen that would make them stay home on election day.

A Third Party

Third parties are generally spoilers, although, lest we forget, the Republicans were once a third party. Most third parties are tiny. But one, “No Labels”, could field a serious candidate. Robert Kennedy, jr. – yes, that is Kennedy as in The Kennedys – is the only serious independent. While he is a Democrat, he is far to the right. He promotes conspiracy theories. He's a vaccine skeptic, for example, a proponent of a widely discredited theory that vaccines cause autism. There has even been talk of him being Trump's vice presidential candidate. If Kennedy runs as a third party candidate, he likely will take votes away from the former president.

Immigration

Republicans have made a concerted effort to blame the immigration troubles, at our southern border, on the Biden Administration. Among Trump's hardcore, that strategy has worked. But among the broader electorate, not so much. In a special election in New York, for example, Democrat Tom Suozzi won by successfully pointing out Republican inaction on recently proposed immigration legislation. That said, there's a lot of time until November.

Wars

Both the Ukraine and Gaza are fluid situations. There are months until the next election. Wars can change in weeks, days, even hours. Trump is largely an isolationist. This puts the pressure squarely upon the Biden Administration.

Trump On Trial

Trump's trials are this year's wild card. That a former president faces 91 felony charges, this is simply unprecedented. However, if he is found guilty on any of these charges, some polls indicate that he could lose a third of the independent voters who currently favor him.

The Economy

The economy is an electoral perennial. It's surprising how little a president can do about the economy, and surprising how much the electorate holds the president responsible. This makes perception a key factor. Overall, the economy is strong. Business activity, labor markets, inflation, these are all moving in a favorable direction. The unemployment rate is low, 3.7%. Employment is forecast to be good if not spectacular. In the current quarter, the expectation is for 235,800 new jobs per month. But the perception is that the economy is weak. In January, a Pew study found that only 34% of Democrats, and 20% of Republicans, expect economic conditions to be better by this time next year. The perception is that President Biden is not doing all that he can for the economy.