Axar.az presents interview with Russian political scientist Evgeny Mikhailov:
- The conflict between Pakistan and India has reignited in recent days. Do you think war is possible, and and what comes next?
- I believe a full-scale war will not happen. Given that the conflict between India and Pakistan has essentially been ongoing since 1971, it will likely follow the pattern of Iran and Israel—exchanges of strikes and then some proxy actions. A full-scale war is unlikely, considering the nuclear capabilities of both Pakistan and India. Right now, the international community is not interested in a conflict in this region. So, I think there will be exchanges of strikes, and that will be it.
- How will world powers react to this amidst the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine?
- A major war could only begin in the event of a direct conflict between Israel and Iran. The Indians and Pakistanis, after all, are more level-headed and have always approached warfare with great caution. Right now, the international community will genuinely step in to calm things down, because there’s already enough tension in the world. If this conflict escalates as well, the entire world could go into chaos. Pakistan has over 200 million people, as far as I know, and India has over a billion. Such a conflict is not beneficial for any of the main players on the international stage right now.
- Which countries could get involved in the case of a full-scale war, and who would support whom?
- No world powers will get involved in the confrontation if hostilities break out. In the case of conflict between Pakistan and India, countries will focus on their own security. The two large countries could cause massive damage to the global economy. In this context, I don't foresee third countries getting involved, especially considering the situation in the Middle East. Right now, it's every country for itself, protecting its own interests. Only behind the scenes, Britain might support Pakistan alongside Turkiye. Turkiye is unlikely to directly engage in the conflict. The U.S. and its allies would support India. Direct participation from any country in supporting either side is unlikely. It's just not the right situation or time. The whole world is already on edge, and everyone is truly afraid of a third world war. It’s already happening in some ways, but if the India-Pakistan conflict escalates, massive casualties across the region would be inevitable.