In a world where might makes right, countries that find themselves seeking new territory may not hesitate to use force to get it. With the most dramatic effects of climate change still to come, the race for land is just getting started.

Axar.az_ (Foreign Affairs) Michael Albertus, in an article published on the website on March 4^th, 2025, argues that climate change is driving a new era of territorial expansion, with major powers seeking land and resources to adapt to a warming world. The postwar period of relative territorial stability is ending, as seen in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and renewed U.S. interest in acquiring Greenland under Donald Trump. Greenland, in particular, is becoming a geopolitical hotspot due to its strategic location, emerging shipping routes, and vast untapped resources. As global temperatures rise, previously inhospitable lands in the Arctic and other northern regions will become more viable for agriculture, settlement, and economic development, fueling competition among world powers.

Countries like Canada and Russia, with vast northern territories, stand to benefit from climate-induced changes, gaining arable land, economic growth, and strategic shipping routes. However, the pursuit of land will not be confined to the Arctic. Other sparsely populated or resource-rich regions, such as Antarctica, non-sovereign territories like the Falkland Islands and New Caledonia, and areas with critical minerals, will become focal points of geopolitical struggle. Climate-induced migration will also exacerbate tensions, as rising seas and declining agricultural productivity force populations to seek refuge in more habitable areas.

As competition intensifies, international agreements aimed at maintaining territorial stability may falter, and military conflicts over land and resources could become more frequent. Powers like China, Nigeria, and Russia might expand their territorial ambitions, while the United States could push for northern expansion to counter climate impacts on its own land. With climate change reshaping economic and geopolitical dynamics, the race for land is poised to become a defining feature of global politics in the coming decades.

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