The World Bank (WB) forecasts economic growth in Azerbaijan at the level of 2.7% in 2025.

Axar.az informs via Repоrt that according to the WB Azerbaijan's GDP growth rate will slow down to 2.4% in 2026, to 2.3% in 2027, and to 2.2% in 2028-2029. On average, Azerbaijan's economy will grow by 2.4% per year in 2025-2029.

According to WB estimates, oil production will continue to decline due to aging of the main fields (Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli block of fields in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea), while natural gas production (at Shahdeniz field) will stabilize after peak levels in 2024-2025.

The non-resource sectors of the economy, in particular services and construction, will grow at 4% per annum. The construction sector is likely to remain focused on public investment.

The bank noted that in the medium term, growth rates could accelerate if key structural constraints, such as the high share of the state in the economy, poor development of financial markets and insufficient human capital, are removed. This requires effective implementation of recently adopted competition laws and regulations in the financial sector.

The WB projects the country's external and fiscal position to remain robust over the medium term, although surpluses are expected to narrow amid declining revenues from the hydrocarbon sector in line with production capacity.

At the same time, the economic outlook is subject to risks, including geopolitical factors, global economic changes and climate challenges, the WB said.

Azerbaijan's Ministry of Economy forecasts GDP growth in 2024 by 3.5%, and the Central Bank - by 3.3%.

Forecasts of international rating agencies regarding the growth of Azerbaijan's economy in 2025-2026 differ with the S&P Global predicting the growth at 2% annually, Fitch Ratings at 3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, Moody's at 2.5% annually. Dutch bank ING expects economic growth in the country at 2.6% this year and 2.8% next year.

In 2024, Azerbaijan's economy will grow by 4.1%.