Axar.az presents the article "One year after Azerbaijan’s victory: Outcomes, developments, and challenges" by American political analyst Andrew Korybko.

It’s been a year since Azerbaijan’s victory in last year’s Patriotic War. This makes it a fitting occasion to briefly review its outcomes, subsequent developments, and the lingering challenges connected to that conflict. What follows is a concise summary of each with the intent of placing everything into a larger strategic context.

Outcomes

* Implement International Law:

Azerbaijan fulfilled the four UNSC Resolutions that had been passed several decades ago calling for Armenia’s withdrawal from the occupied territories that the international community had hitherto failed to implement for political reasons.

* Confirm Rising Power Status:

The above success was made possible by President Aliyev’s visionary leadership over the years in meticulously preparing for Karabakh’s liberation, which was masterfully executed by the Armed Forces and ultimately confirmed Azerbaijan’s status as a rising power worthy of respect from all.

* Facilitate Connectivity:

Connectivity is one of the top trends of the 21st century, and Azerbaijan’s victory facilitated this outcome in the South Caucasus after the Moscow-mediated November 2020 ceasefire’s final clause called for the unblocking of all regional transport corridors.

Developments

* Expose Armenian Crimes:

Azerbaijan didn’t waste a moment documenting Armenian crimes in liberated Karabakh after it invited the international community to see for themselves all that had happened there during the decades of illegal occupation, which powerfully discredited the Armenian lobby’s propaganda.

* Rebuild Liberated Karabakh:

Another one of Azerbaijan’s post-war priorities has been to rebuild liberated Karabakh, which it seeks to do in partnership with those friendly countries like Turkey and Pakistan that supported it during the conflict, who’ve been invited to participate in this process.

* Support Regional Cooperation:

President Aliyev proposed a six-country regional cooperation platform after the war ended, which aims to revolutionize the strategic situation in the South Caucasus by fostering cooperation between its three states and the region’s top three external stakeholders.

Challenges

* Peacekeeping Problems:

The Russian peacekeepers that were deployed to Karabakh as part of last year’s ceasefire have done an excellent job keeping order under their zones of responsibility, but Armenia is suspected of arming local fighters there in an attempt to provoke violence, which is a lingering problem that must be addressed.

* Border Provocations:

Not only that, but Armenia has also provoked problems along its border with Azerbaijan, which was widely interpreted as an attempt to manufacture the pretext for delaying agreement on a comprehensive peace deal between these two countries.

* Zangezur Fearmongering:

Another challenge that emerged after last year’s war was Armenia’s unsubstantiated fearmongering about the Zangezur Corridor, which Yerevan falsely claims might embolden Baku to make territorial claims against it.

In Conclusion:

As can be seen from this brief review, Azerbaijan’s victory in last year’s Patriotic War significantly reshaped the regional geostrategic calculus. The South Caucasus has never had a brighter future ahead of it, but Armenian obstructionism remains a challenge to making further progress. Hopefully, its leadership will realize the mutual benefits in changing its ways and do so as soon as possible.