A military analyst has said that aggression from Belarus would only become potentially possible if a military grouping of at least 15,000 personnel were deployed near the Ukrainian border.

Axar.az reports that Ukrainian military analyst Ivan Stupak made the remarks in an interview with the “Superposition” channel.

Commenting on President Volodymyr Zelensky’s remarks regarding Russia’s attempts to involve Belarus in the war, Stupak stressed that there is currently no Russian offensive grouping on Belarusian territory.

“According to my assessment, the minimum number of Russians that could begin to pose a threat to Ukraine when concentrated near the border starts from around 5,000. If it is below or equal to that figure, then I believe there is no threat. In other words, 5,000 means nothing. But when 15,000–20,000 are assembled, then it becomes serious—this is a truly large number, and there is reason for concern,” he said.

Stupak noted that during the 2022 invasion, approximately 46,000–47,000 Russian troops entered the Kyiv region from Belarusian territory. However, he emphasized that no such grouping currently exists in Belarus.

The analyst also added that the formation of such a strike force would not go unnoticed, as it would require months of troop buildup, logistics preparation, and training before any offensive action.