Russia downgraded oil output forecast for this year to a 17-year low and revised fuel exports outlook for 2026 and 2027 due to the war with Ukraine.

Axar.az reports, citing Reuters, that according to a Russian government draft forecast, oil production estimates for 2026-2029 have been reduced by 16 million to 20 million tonnes compared with the previous forecast published in May.

Since the war began in February 2022, the European Union has banned most of ​Russian oil and fuel imports, an important source of revenue for Moscow.

Along with export bottlenecks, intensifying ​Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's oil refineries in the past months have also reduced ⁠fuel production, triggering gasoline shortages across the country.

In its base case scenario, the government expects that Russia's ​crude oil production — the world's third-largest — will decline by 17.2 million metric tons this year to 494.2 million tons ​or 9.88 million barrels per day, its lowest since 2009.