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Afrin's operation, closely monitored by the world's press in recent days, the attitudes of the great powers to this operation and the consequences of this operation have seized the political agenda.
Axar.az presents an exclusive interview with Aleksander Sytin, the Head of the Russian Center for Political and Research in North and Eastern Europe, Doctor of Historical Sciences
- Pentagon warned YPG over Afrin in the case of shooting Turks it would cut off support. Have US and Turkey reached a secret deal in the Afrin operation?
- It's a very conspiracy question. It seems to me that Turkey is threatening the United States as a member of NATO and a member of the Union, which will defend its membership and develop new relations with the Russian Federation. Official Moscow is dreaming of the Moscow-Ankara-Tehran trio that will be directed against the United States. As far as Turkey wants, we know very little, but I guess about it:
1. Such a trio is impossible.
2. This "multi-vector" will not give the official dividends to Ankara policy. I do not really believe that the US supports the Kurds. First, because it is contrary to the country's traditional foreign policy. Secondly, because of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Another issue is the support of Kurdish armed men, the traditional enemy of Turkey.
3. The United States is currently keen to neutralize the "victory" of the Russian Federation in Syria, gain control over the Syrian transport corridor, and not to seriously oppose Ankara. They (US) will act in the hands of the Kurds, and even possible by the hands of the Turks. The ideal way out would be to create a confrontation between Russia and Turkey. But I do not see the potential for such a situation. When it comes to your question, it is likely that the negotiations can be improved by mutual consent. Everyone understands everything formally, instead of mysterious agreement.
- Afrin was previously in the control of Russia. Before the Turks attacked, the Russians withdrew from this area. Interestingly, the Kurds have been accused of betraying the Russians, who have been allies for years. Why did the Russians take such a step? Has Moscow really a big promise from Turkey or something else we do not know?
- I can only describe the position of the Russian Federation.
The Kremlin, as we have already said, is very keen to establish a partnership with Ankara and Tehran. Undoubtedly, the Moscow Kurds will sell. Here we can not talk about any other principle. Bashar al-Assad needs Russia as a marionette - all in order to control the territory of Syria. Turkey needs official Moscow, first of all, for the security of the Black Sea basin. The real rapprochement between Turkey and the US is a real nightmare for the Kremlin, primarily through NATO (as seen in Ukraine). What kind of Kurds can we talk about? Therefore, Russia flags allegations that the United States supports the Kurds in order to break the stability in the region and provides them with weapons. The funniest one is that you provide Kurds with weapons, and if they do not want to fight, you can not force them to fight. Therefore, If i were Kurds i would not think Moscow will remain loyal to the Soviet tradition that supports the Kurdish national movement.
- Is Putin expected to change Russia's foreign policy in South Caucasia as long as he is in power? Because the North-South railway will be put into operation. Does Azerbaijan's role as a transit country positively influence the course of the Karabakh conflict?
- It will probably be transit through Azerbaijan, but if Armenia is Russia's first ally, Putin will not defend Azerbaijan's interests in the Karabakh conflict. The Russians will again speak of a "cultural and historical" community they love. On the other hand, this is a good excuse for blackmail - if Irevan turns to Eurasian integration and goes to Europe: there are forces in Armenia that are interested in doing so, and official Moscow knows it well. I do not believe that the Russians are risking to lose their bases and strategic alliances in the South Caucasus to establish an alliance with Tehran and Baku ...
2018.01.25 / 16:41