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Korybko: Turkey is a military actor in the South Caucasus

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Axar.az presents the article "Turkey Is a responsible military actor in the South Caucasus" by Andrew Korybko.

Turkey's military influence has risen in the South Caucasus following Azerbaijan's glorious victory in the Patriotic War late last year. Ankara's supply of cutting-edge drones and other equipment greatly assisted Baku in liberating the occupied territories. In the aftermath of that conflict, Turkey and Russia recently opened a joint ceasefire monitoring centre, and Azerbaijan is currently carrying out military exercises with it in the Anatolian country's Kars Province. All three of these developments confirm that Turkey is a responsible military actor in the South Caucasus.

Regarding the first of these examples, Turkey's provision of military equipment to Azerbaijan confirmed with the norms of international law. All states have the right to enter into bilateral military cooperation with one another, which in this case had the added legal benefit of helping Azerbaijan implement four UNSC Resolutions concerning the immediate need for Armenia to withdraw from the occupied territories. Those resolutions regrettably went unheeded for around two and a half decades until Armenia miscalculated Azerbaijan's response by provoking hostilities with it last September as part of a risky geopolitical gamble at the time.

On the second topic of Turkey's growing military role in the South Caucasus, Ankara's ceasefire monitoring cooperation with Moscow in Nagorno-Karabakh upholds the close trust between these two Great Powers which are the most influential players in the entire South Caucasus. Both countries are confirming to the international community that they've put their centuries-long rivalry behind them and are eagerly working with one another to write an exciting new chapter in regional relations. Without such close cooperation between their militaries, the South Caucasus would arguably remain unstable.

Lastly, the significance of the ongoing joint military exercises between Azerbaijan and Turkey shouldn't be underestimated. They're a strong signal to Armenia that any repeat of its regional aggression won't be tolerated. Both countries will resolutely respond to any such destabilization attempt in the event that Yerevan attempts to provoke that scenario. Furthermore, these drills are important for symbolism's sake too since they reaffirm the fraternal ties between these two allied institutions. They're a matter of pride for the Azerbaijani and Turkish people, especially since they represent both government's commitment to regional peace.

Even so, some ill-intentioned forces in the media have tried their utmost to fearmonger about the grand strategic implications of Turkey's rising military influence in the South Caucasus. They dishonestly claim that this is alleged proof of Ankara's aggressive regional intentions. Nothing could be further from the truth as all of its relevant actions have been in strict accordance with international law. In addition, Russia accepts Turkey's new role as evidenced by the recent establishment of its joint ceasefire monitoring centre in Nagorno-Karabakh. Far from destabilizing the South Caucasus, this actually stabilizes it.

Miscommunication, media manipulation, and a lack of meaningful military cooperation in the region contributed to prior speculation that the two were tacitly competing in the South Caucasus. That dark prediction might have eventually transpired too had it not been for the game-changing outcome brought about by Azerbaijan's glorious victory in the Patriotic War. That event resulted in all relevant parties with the exception of Armenia putting aside their prior perception of competition to cooperate in ensuring that international law was finally implemented in Nagorno-Karabakh per the four UNSC Resolutions on the matter.

The new reality that's since emerged is that there is no longer any seemingly credible basis upon which to claim that Turkey and Russia are competing in the South Caucasus, nor that Ankara's rising military influence is destabilizing the region. To the contrary, the only objective conclusion that can be made is that those two Great Powers are nowadays close partners and that Turkey's newfound role has contributed to stabilizing this previously unstable region. The lesson to be learned is that dramatic events such as the Patriotic War don't always have to lead to the worst-case scenario since all that it takes is the political will to make it the best one.

Date
2021.02.08 / 14:13
Author
Andrew Korybko
Comments
See also

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