On October 26, Georgia will hold its next parliamentary elections. According to representatives of the Georgian Dream party, citizens will determine the future of Georgia on Saturday: whether the republic will truly become an independent state or return to being a vassal of the EU and the US in the South Caucasus.

Axar.az reports that this was stated by "Vestnik Kavkaza."

Georgian political analyst Petre Mamradze believes that the Georgian Dream party will win by securing the majority of seats in parliament:

"Based on the mood I observe, it seems that the majority of voters will support the Georgian Dream. I use the word 'seems' because everything can change in a day here. However, the ruling party's meetings with voters in the regions indicate that the party could consistently secure more than half of the seats in parliament, that is, 76 or more mandates. (The Georgian parliament consists of 150 deputies: 77 are elected proportionally and 73 through a majoritarian system).

It is likely that we will again encounter a government formed by the Georgian Dream. These are minimal estimates: It would not be a surprise to me if the ruling party collects three quarters of the votes, allowing it to make constitutional changes without considering the opposition. Following the victory of the Georgian Dream, Georgia will inevitably face disturbances organized by the National Movement with Western support.

A rally by the opposition is scheduled for immediately after the voting day near the parliament building, where there will either be a celebration of victory or a protest against alleged fraud. They will scream that 80% of the population supports Georgia's integration into the EU, while the Georgian Dream is against it because they are a puppet of the Kremlin and cannot collect more than 20% of the votes. I hope that the ruling party and government will have enough experience and patience to withstand all these provocations, which we already faced in 2020."

Another Georgian political analyst, Vaso Kapanadze, believes that the ruling party will secure more than 50% of the votes:

"The opposition thinks that the ruling party will not exceed 30% of the votes. On the contrary, the leaders of the Georgian Dream are hopeful for approximately 60% support from voters. These expectations highlight a significant divide both in society and among the main political forces. Therefore, the election is largely unpredictable, especially considering that the ruling party has made tactical mistakes during the campaign and has not been sufficiently active. Our society feels obligated to vote for the ruling party because it defends the country's sovereign development course, unlike the destructive opposition forces that wish to maintain Georgia's dependency on the West. Thus, I expect the ruling party to gain more than 50% of the votes.

It is crucial that this does not end there, as the West is unlikely to recognize the ruling party's victory and may demand a more pro-Western and anti-Russian stance. Ivanishvili has already warned that a difficult period will continue after the elections. Now, the West—Western structures, European parliamentarians, and American congressmen—are strengthening the opposition’s hand. The level of destructiveness in their actions after the election could be high. Everything will depend on the activity level of the destructive opposition forces, NGOs, and the media, as well as the aggressiveness of European and American officials from outside. The government will react according to the nature of its opponents' actions.

It is undoubtedly expected that tension will be high immediately after the preliminary voting results are announced on October 26; it's just a matter of degree. As the leader of European Georgia, Gigi Ugulava, stated, the opposition forces will not wait for a court ruling immediately after the parliamentary election results are announced and will seek to release Mikheil Saakashvili by their own means."

Ramaz Sakvarelidze noted that the choice of Georgian voters is now clear:

"Both my calculations and sociological studies regarding the support for the Georgian Dream and opposition parties indicate that the ruling party will win. The figures in the polls vary significantly, but their order and ratios are almost always the same: Georgian Dream consistently ranks first in terms of citizen support, while the leading opposition party, the National Movement, receives about 20% less support. Following this opposition party are others with considerably lower ratings. After the election, our parliament will likely grant a majority to Georgian Dream, along with some mandates to the National Movement and possibly a couple of other parties," he stated.

Sakvarelidze predicts that there will be a limited tense situation in the country after the elections:

"There are always those who are dissatisfied with the voting results, and they take to the streets. However, I don't think there will be serious protests that would obstruct the work of political institutions. Protests will occur, but if the opposition loses, the West will not support them afterward. Therefore, the scale of opposition protests will likely be quite limited. Western officials are facing the risk of encountering a scenario in Georgia similar to what we recently saw in Moldova, where the government manipulated the vote counts to achieve the results needed for the Euro-integration referendum."