During the 2020 Second Karabakh War, when Trump was president, he did not make any negative statements against Azerbaijan. Furthermore, before that, Trump had supported arms sales to Azerbaijan. The volume of arms sold to Armenia and Azerbaijan was balanced, but during Trump’s term, more weapons were sold to Azerbaijan.

Axar.az reports that these remarks were made by Russian political scientist Sergey Markov when commenting on Trump’s views regarding Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus following his victory in the U.S. elections.

Markov recalled Trump’s previous experience in office and noted that the Republican nominee would not take a harsh stance on Azerbaijan and that the processes would continue as part of U.S. policy toward the South Caucasus:

“President Trump did not have a clear position on the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. There are several factors here. Before the elections, Trump turned to support the Armenians because there is an Armenian community in the U.S. Trump’s goal was not just to win the Armenian vote, but also to prevent them from voting for Harris. It is important to note that during the Second Karabakh War, Trump did not express any dissatisfaction regarding Turkiye’s military assistance to Azerbaijan. The Armenian lobby was actively raising the issue of American weapons being given to Turkiye as a NATO member. All of these are, of course, unproven facts. But if Trump had been pro-Armenian, he would have spoken negatively about the weapons supposedly given from Turkiye to Azerbaijan. However, Trump remained silent.”

According to Markov, after coming to power, Trump would generally pursue a pragmatic policy focused on economic development:

“In this regard, Azerbaijan is far more attractive to the U.S. than Armenia. Azerbaijan is economically more influential and stronger than Armenia. Azerbaijan has oil and gas resources, and oil and gas are key factors in modern economies. Around Trump, there are more politicians who are considered pro-Armenian, such as Rama Svami, Robert Kennedy Jr., and Tulsi Gabbard. They have repeatedly used the term ‘Artsakh’ and are considered to be somewhat connected to the Armenian lobby. If they occupy important positions in Trump’s administration, they could influence his policies in favor of Armenians.”

The political scientist also noted that Azerbaijan could continue its energy projects successfully during Trump’s presidency:

“The U.S. policy will focus on selling American gas and oil to Europe. This was partly achieved by pushing Russia out of the European market. This policy will continue in the future. Trump has said that he wants the U.S. to produce more oil and gas than both Russia and Saudi Arabia. To achieve this, he will promote non-ecological methods such as hydraulic fracturing (fracking) for shale gas, building pipelines, and removing other ecological restrictions on oil and gas production.

At the same time, it seems unlikely that the U.S. will politically pressure Europe to stop buying gas or oil from Azerbaijan. Moreover, the European Union’s economy is large enough, and American gas and oil alone would not suffice. Europe will have to buy oil and gas from other sources. Trump does not see Azerbaijan’s gas transit to Europe as competition to U.S. interests and will not try to obstruct it.”