Even U.S. President Donald Trump—not known as a critic of Russia—has signaled frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stalling over a cease-fire in Ukraine. Why does Putin, three years after it became clear that his army could not destroy Ukraine in battle, seem so unwilling to countenance any sort of cease-fire?

Axar.az reports that this was written by Polish expert Jan Garner in Foreign Policy magazine.

Despite some recent gains on the ground—notably in pushing the Ukrainians out of Russia’s own Kursk region—the chance of a decisive Russian military victory remains vanishingly small. Indeed, the clock appears to be ticking on Russia’s war effort. Moscow’s forces are hemorrhaging men and equipment, and analysts cast doubt on how long Russia’s economy can keep producing enough materiel to feed the front. Ukraine’s intelligence service claims that the Kremlin recognizes that the war has to end by 2026 if Russia is to avoid a serious deterioration of its geopolitical power.

Yet Putin is not putting any brakes on the war. Nor has he offered any concessions that would even hint at the possibility of a peace settlement short of Ukraine’s capitulation. Despite the flurry of U.S.-Russia negotiations over a cease-fire, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov this week spoke of an inevitably “drawn-out process.” Meanwhile, Russia continues to barrage Ukrainian cities with rockets and drones, and Putin has just announced a plan to conscript another 160,000 men into the military this spring, the highest rate in 14 years. At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces are still drawing in thousands of soldiers every month through contract recruiting. Pausing the war may seem like a no-brainer for an exhausted Russia, but the country’s long-term militarization continues apace.

Putin may believe that, by holding out, he can extract even more concessions from Trump, who seems to be increasingly willing to strike any deal with Russia at all—even if it means forcing Ukraine to collapse. Putin may hope to be gifted by Washington what he has failed to achieve on the battlefield.

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