Gulf states are quietly relieved that Israel’s recent military campaign has weakened the Islamic Republic of Iran, as they see a restrained yet stable Iran as more favorable than a scenario involving regime collapse.

Axar.az, citing Iran International, reports that despite their official condemnation of the attacks, security experts say that leaders in countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and others prefer an Iran whose regional influence and military capabilities—especially its missile and nuclear programs—are diminished. They believe this reduces the threat Tehran poses without triggering the chaos that a sudden political upheaval could bring.

While the weakening of Iran’s power serves their strategic interests, Gulf governments remain deeply concerned about the potential fallout of full-scale instability or regime change in Iran. A civil war or the fragmentation of Iran along ethnic lines could lead to mass refugee flows, economic disruption, and the rise of a failed state with access to nuclear materials—all scenarios Gulf countries are eager to avoid. This fear has led them to maintain pragmatic diplomatic relations with Iran, even as they quietly welcome its military setbacks.

Ultimately, the Gulf states' ideal outcome is an Iran that is “declawed” — stripped of aggressive capabilities but still intact as a functioning state. They view this as the best way to preserve regional stability while continuing their own economic development and avoiding the high costs of conflict or collapse on their doorstep.