A large space rock came fairly close to Earth on Sunday
night. Astronomers knew it wasn't going to hit Earth, thanks in
part to a new tool NASA is developing for detecting potentially
dangerous asteroids.
The tool is a computer program called Scout, and it's being
tested at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. Think
of Scout as a celestial intruder alert system. It's constantly
scanning data from telescopes to see if there are any reports of
so-called Near Earth Objects. If it finds one, it makes a quick
calculation of whether Earth is at risk, and instructs other
telescopes to make follow-up observations to see if any risk is
real.
NASA pays for several telescopes around the planet to scan the
skies on a nightly basis, looking for these objects. "The NASA
surveys are finding something like at least five asteroids every
night," says astronomer Paul Chodas of JPL.
But then the trick is to figure out which new objects might hit
Earth.
"When a telescope first finds a moving object, all you know is
it's just a dot, moving on the sky," says Chodas. "You have no
information about how far away it is. "The more telescopes you get
pointed at an object, the more data you get, and the more you're
sure you are how big it is and which way it's headed. But sometimes
you don't have a lot of time to make those observations.
"Objects can come close to the Earth shortly after discovery,
sometimes one day, two days, even hours in some cases," says JPL's
Davide Farnocchia. "The main goal of Scout is to speed up the
confirmation process."
The rock that whizzed past Earth tonight was discovered on the
night of Oct. 25-26 by the NASA-funded Panoramic Survey Telescope
& Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS) on Maui, Hawaii. Within a
few hours, preliminary details about the object appeared on a Web
page maintained by the Minor Planet Center at the Smithsonian
Astrophysical Observatory. Scout did a quick analysis of the
preliminary details and determined that the object was headed for
Earth but would miss us by about 310,000 miles.
Additional observations by three telescopes, one operated by the
Steward Observatory, another called Spacewatch, and a third at the
Tenagra Observatories, confirmed the object would miss Earth by a
comfortable margin. Astronomers were also able to estimate the size
of the object: somewhere between 5 meters and 25 meters across. In
case you're interested, full details about the object's trajectory
can be found here.
Scout is still in the testing phase. It should become fully
operational later this year.
Now Scout is mainly dealing with smallish, very nearby objects.
Complementing Scout is another system that is already operational
called Sentry.
Sentry's job is to identify objects large enough to wipe out a
major city that might hit Earth in the next hundred years. "Our
goal right now is to find 90 percent of the 140-meter asteroids and
larger," says Chodas, but right now he estimates they're able to
find only 25 to 30 percent of the estimated population of objects
that size.
That number should get better when a new telescope being built
in Chile called the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope comes online.
NASA is also considering a space telescope devoted to searching for
asteroids.
OK, so let's say you find one of these monster rocks heading for
Earth. What then? Astronomer Ed Lu says there is something you can
do. He's CEO of an organization called B612. It's devoted to
dealing with asteroid threats.
"If you know well in advance, and by well in advance I mean 10
years, 20 years, 30 years in advance, which is something we can do,
" says Lu, "then you can divert such an asteroid by just giving it
a tiny nudge when it's many billions of miles from hitting the
Earth."
NASA and the European Space Agency are developing a mission to
practice doing just that.
Lu says in the past decade, people who should worry about such
things have begun to make concrete plans for dealing with dangerous
asteroids.
"I believe in the next 10 to 15 years we'll actually be at the
point where we as humans can say, 'Hey, we're safe from this danger
of large asteroids hitting the Earth,' " he says.
In the meantime, we'll just have to hope that luck is on our
side.