In recent weeks, the activity of the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri has increased. However, this is not about the rotation of personnel, nor the planned strengthening of defense capabilities. All indicators reveal a completely different logic - military equipment is becoming a lever for interference in internal political processes.

Axar.az reports that Caliber published information about this.

According to sources, in June and July 2025, the Russian side repeatedly appealed to Azerbaijan, asking for permission for military transport aircraft to pass through our airspace. The goal was to deliver weapons and ammunition to Armenia. However, Baku expressed a firm and unambiguous position: the corridor is closed. This decision reflects both the protection of national interests and the presence of potential risks.

“The nomenclature of the cargo being attempted raises serious questions. In addition to heavy weapons, an attempt was made to deliver weapons intended for close combat and urban use near the base in Gyumri. That is, we are not talking only about possible open clashes on the border with Azerbaijan in the future, but also about the possibility of street battles and armed clashes in densely populated areas.

According to the information received, one of Russia’s goals is to overthrow the current Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan. Having lost its direct levers of influence over Yerevan, Moscow may try to restore control through a controlled crisis. Against this background, various provocations, even terrorist acts, are not excluded throughout the territory of Armenia. This model is already familiar: in 2014, everything started in Crimea with “little green men”, chaos, and, in parallel, the replacement of political figures.

There is also the old guard that Moscow “keeps in reserve”: Robert Kocharyan, Serzh Sargsyan, Samvel Karapetyan. All three have a pro-Russian reputation and can be put forward as a “national alternative” against the backdrop of the turmoil that will be created against Pashinyan. It is expected that after the wave of provocations, they will come to the fore under the pretext of “saving” the situation. Behind the scenes, a fifth column will operate in Armenian politics will operate.

According to sources, if the change of power is successful, the next stage will be a change in Yerevan’s political course, followed by the start of escalation towards Azerbaijan. This also explains why Russia is trying to deliver heavy weapons to the 102nd base in Gyumri.

Thus, we are not talking about just the transportation of equipment or a temporary activity. This is a structural preparation for a chain of steps that can change the political and military landscape of the region. This is the main danger. Moscow sees the territory of Armenia as an operational arena for a controlled crisis and the use of force. In parallel, it intends to regain the positions it has lost in the South Caucasus.

Azerbaijan’s refusal to provide Russia with an air corridor is an important, but temporary barrier. More importantly is necessary to understand the mechanism of Russia's game against Armenia and Azerbaijan in the future.

For Azerbaijan, this scenario means the disruption of stability on our borders and the emergence of new levels of threats. And Armenia, if this plan is implemented, will again become an object, not a subject. This is confirmed by both methods, names, and rhetoric. And behind all these details lies a familiar logic: controlled chaos, replacement of elites, militarization, external confrontation. All of this follows the same "textbook".

Russia still hopes to regain the influence it has lost, but the price for this may be the overall security balance of the South Caucasus. If for Moscow the destabilization of neighboring countries is perceived as an instrument of geopolitical "correction", then for the region this means involvement in someone else's game with devastating consequences.

The question is not whether Yerevan will allow this scenario to happen. The question is different: it is not within the constitutional framework of its political future, but in the interests of a foreign player - not in Yerevan, but at the headquarters of the 102nd base in Gyumri and in Moscow "Does it realize that it can be "written" again with the script that is written?

But Azerbaijan is no longer a country that anyone can ignore or put in front of the facts. We are not passive observers. We see, analyze, draw conclusions. And we have enough will, tools and political experience to not allow the region to be played out according to an alien script," the publication noted.