The events in Syria over the past month reveal the following picture: Kurdish forces that previously had joint defense or autonomy over certain areas are now disintegrating one after another and losing what they controlled.

Axar.az reports that these remarks were made by Arabist Ayk Kocharian in an interview with local media.

“It is clear here that previous political and military support (mainly from the US) is no longer available. Of course, the Kurds are trying to resist with all their strength, but from the perspective of the new security architecture in the Middle East, Kurdish autonomy or a Kurdish state is almost off the table for now. The Kurds are currently in a very difficult situation,” Kocharian said.

Regarding why the Kurds lost US support, whether there was a US–Turkiye agreement, and if so, what the exchange involved, the Arabist explained:

“The US tries not to interfere in regional affairs over minor issues. There are main players given a carte blanche to define their positions in the region, but on the other hand, the US needs the regional infrastructure to function, which is more feasible in a united Syria than in a fragmented or troubled Syria.

The EU also supports Damascus in strengthening central authority through financial aid. Everyone needs this part of the ‘Central Corridor’ and its infrastructure; therefore, although the Kurds may have had opportunities to succeed in the past, currently, there is no geopolitical situation serving their benefit or interests.

Israel could be an exception in certain matters, but Israel also has its own calculations in the region.”

According to the expert, this shift has also affected internal Kurdish dynamics:

“There is currently no factor that can help the Kurds; the Kurdish factor is very weak. Today, Kurdish forces meet with the Syrian leadership, and they cannot take as demanding a position as before because the situation on the ground has changed significantly.

The weakening and neutralization of the Kurdish factor in Syria further strengthens Turkiye’s position.”