As a result of high-level, intensive bilateral talks in 2025, as well as the signing of the Washington Declaration and the Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations—reached on August 8 with the active participation of US President Donald Trump—the likelihood of military escalation has significantly decreased, while the prospects for a peaceful settlement have increased.

Axar.az reports that this is stated in a report by Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service on Armenia’s external risks in 2026.

“Based on a comprehensive analysis of the above-mentioned and related processes and information, the occurrence of military escalation of varying scale between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026, stemming from military-political intentions, is almost impossible. We also consider the probability of local actions or incidents not arising from military-political intentions to be very low.

In 2026, there is a likelihood of further progress in the processes of border delimitation and demarcation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, bilateral trade and economic initiatives, and intercultural dialogue. If regional infrastructure is unblocked, progress will also be recorded in already ongoing processes.

At the same time, the risks of destabilizing actions by states seeking to exert influence in our region and strengthen their interests through communication processes will increase in 2026,” the report states.