Last year, news about the possibility of an asteroid with a diameter of about 60 meters colliding with Earth in 2032 caused global concern. However, after detailed calculations, it was clarified that this celestial body, called 2024 YR4, does not pose a threat to our planet. This statement also caused a general relief that a “Don’t Look Up” scenario will not happen.

Axar.az reports that astronomers say that although the risk to Earth has been eliminated, the probability of an asteroid colliding with the Moon in 2032 has not been eliminated. According to recent calculations, this probability is about 4 percent. Scientists now describe more clearly how such a collision could be seen from Earth.

A new study, which has not yet passed scientific peer review and was published on the arXiv.org preprint platform, notes that if the asteroid collides with the Moon, it will create a powerful “optical flash” that can be observed from Earth. This sudden burst of light will be followed by an infrared glow that could last for hours. According to the researchers, this event could be the most energetic lunar collision recorded in human history.

Scientists have previously predicted that this collision would be extremely impactful. According to previous estimates, if 2024 YR4 hits the Moon, it could create a crater about a kilometer in diameter. The impact is estimated to release about 100 million metric tons of material, some of which could reach Earth. Of course, there is no guarantee that such a scenario will definitely happen. But if this event happens, it will be a historic moment for the scientific world.

One of the authors of the study, Yixuan Wu, a researcher at Tsinghua University in China, told Live Science:

"If this scenario comes true, it will be a turning point for planetary science. The Earth-Moon system will become a giant stage where we can test our understanding of asteroid impacts."