Last year, during a conference speech, I predicted that Istanbul would experience an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5–7. I still hold the same view today.

Axar.az reports that this was stated by earthquake expert Süleyman Pampal.

“Unfortunately, a magnitude 7 earthquake will occur in Istanbul. This fault line will rupture and the process will conclude. In recent years, this has even been covered by The New York Times. Scientific articles have also been published in the journal Nature. The earthquake risk in Istanbul is extremely high and inevitable because its recurrence interval has already passed,” the expert added.

Regarding Istanbul, Pampal explained: “The northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault runs parallel to the coast, from the southern part of Istanbul’s European side, along Silivri, to Tekirdağ and Ganos. In 1912, the Ganos fault ruptured, causing a 7.3 magnitude earthquake. Subsequent ruptures continued eastward. In 2009 and 2011, earthquakes of magnitudes 5.5 and 5.9 occurred. On April 23, 2024, a 6.2 magnitude earthquake struck very close to Istanbul. Two devastating earthquakes that destroyed Istanbul in 1766 also occurred along this fault line.

“There remains an unruptured section of the fault line stretching eastward, from the shores of Büyükçekmece to Eminönü, about 30–35 kilometers long. Since this section is underwater, we cannot speak with certainty, but it has not ruptured yet and will rupture at some point,” Pampal said.