Axar.az presents the article "Modernizing the Armenian military won't improve regional stability" by Andrew Korybko.

President Aliyev told foreign media late last week that he doesn't think that Russia should continue giving weapons to Armenia or participate in its military modernization process. Some observers might have regarded this as a self-interested statement made by the leader of a victorious nation that just defeated his foe on the battlefield last year, but it actually makes a lot of objective sense if one takes the time to think about it. All UN member states have the right to enter into military relations with their counterparts, but the argument can be made that Russia's planned modernization of the Armenian Armed Forces won't improve regional stability.

Armenia's membership in Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) means that Moscow is legally obligated to defend it in the event that the country is victimized by foreign aggression. Such a scenario where that would be required is extremely unlikely though since neither Azerbaijan nor Turkey have any intention to attack Armenia, let alone after knowing that doing so would risk provoking a war with Russia too. After being forcibly expelled from Karabakh in line with international law after illegally occupying that UNSC-recognized Azerbaijani territory for nearly three decades, the Armenian military no longer poses any regional threat.

Any serious violation of the ceasefire will be met with a fitting response by Azerbaijan and perhaps even that of its Turkish ally if Ankara's forces in Karabakh are attacked by Armenia, thereby making it impossible for Yerevan to ever reconquer that neighbouring territory. Since there's no realistic scenario where Azerbaijan or Turkey would attack Armenia considering Russia's CSTO mutual defence obligations to it, one can reasonably ask why Armenia needs to modernize its military. It won't succeed in reconquering Karabakh, and it already has the Russian military to defend its borders. In fact, one might wonder why Armenia even needs a military at all.

The only purpose for continuing to maintain a military is for national prestige. Armenia's regional security interests are already guaranteed by Russia through the CSTO, while its Border Guard already protects the frontier from drug and human traffickers. It's of course Armenia's sovereign decision not to disband its military-like some countries such as Costa Rica have previously done, but its people should nevertheless be aware of how strategically unnecessary this institution is. It also costs a lot to be maintained and modernized, which drains much-needed budgetary funds that could be put to better use elsewhere.

Armenia is impoverished, unstable, and suffering from the so-called “brain drain”. It's not yet a failed state, but it's clearly failing before the world's eyes, especially given its ongoing political crisis. Instead of needlessly investing extremely limited funds into the military for reasons of national prestige, Armenian leaders would do better directly investing in their own people through increased state subsidies and long-overdue infrastructure redevelopment. Russia of course has an interest in profiting handsomely from participating in Armenia's military modernization process, but it could also benefit from investing in its people too if invited to do so.