Axar.az presents an article "Caucuses And Primaries" by John Samuel Tieman.

Especially for my readers overseas, I'd like to explain a bit about the upcoming presidential election in the United States. We're about to enter the season of caucuses and primaries, wherein the parties decide upon our candidates.

The Democrats are easy to understand. It will be Joe Biden. But the Republican side will be the most unusual electoral season in memory. I'm old enough to remember when Gary Hart, a senator running for the Democratic nomination, was photographed with a woman reported to be his mistress. His run died right there. In New Hampshire during a snowstorm, Senator Edmund Muskie was photographed when he may have cried – or it may have been melting snow – about a newspaper edition that carried a notorious fake letter about him, and an unflattering story about his wife. In 1972, Muskie was deemed unfit, really too unmanly, for the Democratic nomination. When Jimmy Carter admitted to “Playboy” that he had ''looked on a lot of women with lust'', and had ''committed adultery in my heart many times,'' this almost derailed his candidacy in 1976.

And now there is Donald Trump. Despite vast scandals and numerous legal dilemmas, he has a double-digit lead over all his opponents. Whether he keeps his lead and becomes the Republican nominee for the presidency, well, let's just say that we live in interesting times. His legal problems may be the most dire threat to Trump. There is also the possibility that voters in 2024 may tire of all the drama and start to look at other candidates.

Simply put, the former president has legal troubles that may well be impossible to overcome. The Colorado Supreme Court ruled that the former president is ineligible for public office because he participated in the insurrection on January 6, 2021. Section 3, Article 14 of the Constitution prohibits anyone from holding office if that person has “engaged in insurrection or rebellion”. The decision could conceivably keep Trump off the ballot in Colorado. Maine has already followed suit. Other states may follow Maine. As of this writing, Trump's attorneys are confident the Supreme Court will address these matters, and rule in his favor.

Astonishing as it may seem, a Republican candidate for our highest office may, while he campaigns, be a defendant in four – four! – criminal trials. In two trials, in Atlanta and in the nation's capital, he is accused of trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election. There is a case in Florida concerning the criminal mishandling of classified documents. In New York, he is accused of making hush money payments. Any conviction could change the dynamics of the race. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that almost a third of Republicans will not vote for Trump if he is convicted of a felony. And these are not the end of Trump's legal troubles. On the day of the Iowa caucuses, a defamation trial begins. E. Jean Carroll already won a five million dollar judgment against Trump. Now she is bringing a second defamation suit.

Whether these legal woes will send voters to other Republicans, we'll see. Nikki Haley, a former governor and a former U.N. Ambassador, has seen a significant rise in her poll numbers. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has run a strong campaign in Iowa. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, while a long shot now, is not out of the running. Christie is singular in that he is Trump's most vocal critic.

On January 15th, in the Iowa caucuses, there is a very good chance that Ron DeSantis will succeed, and Trump will underachieve. Nikki Haley could do well in the New Hampshire Primary on January 23rd. On February 23rd, the Republicans then head to South Carolina, Haley's home state. Consider that in the space of about a month, Ambassador Haley could win in New Hampshire and South Carolina. This would put her – to borrow a Southern saying – in the “catbird seat” for the “Super Tuesday” primaries on March 5th. “Super Tuesday” is so- called because the fight is for the delegates from Alabama, Arkansas, Alaska, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.

For Trump, even if he wins everything, his troubles are not over. He is still standing trial on criminal charges. The Republican convention is on July 15th. The former president could face a floor fight at the convention.

I just can't emphasize enough how unprecedented all this is. Will a major party nominate someone who is a defendant in criminal trials? And that's trials with an “-s”? If he is found guilty, then there is the possibility that the Republicans might nominate someone who is a felon. The Constitution doesn't prevent a convicted criminal from being president, but I think that is largely because none of our Founders imagined it possible. Which reminds me of the ancient Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times.”