In an interview with conservative journalist Hugh Hewitt yesterday, US President Donald Trump said he would not meet with Iran’s former crown prince Reza Pahlavi. He justified this—through a subtle hint unbecoming of a president like Trump—by saying he does not believe Pahlavi would have a serious influence on developments in Iran:

“I think we should allow everyone to come forward and prove themselves as the real leader. I’m not sure whether holding talks with him would be appropriate.”

Axar.az reports that political analyst Heydar Oghuz said this.

According to him, Trump is waiting for another force to emerge and lead the process:

“So who is this force Trump is waiting for? The mysterious force Trump expects is Iranian Turks—what we traditionally call South Azerbaijanis.

The issue is that the United States has always viewed South Azerbaijani Turks as a potential game-changing actor in Iran. At times, Washington has even postponed intervention plans due to the belief that South Azerbaijani Turks were not yet ready for revolutionary processes. One such delay occurred in 2012.

It is no secret that in 2011–2012, as today, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Jewish lobby in the US were considering military action against Iran and trying to draw Washington into it. According to claims, Netanyahu’s plans to attack Iran were postponed at least three times due to US intervention.

The US reluctance toward military action became evident at the Global Security Forum 2012 in Washington. Speaking there, renowned US strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski—national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1981—opposed such action and justified his position with several arguments.

According to Brzezinski, an ‘unplanned attack’ on Iran could first and foremost bring destruction to neighboring countries, including Azerbaijan.
‘For example, in Azerbaijan this could deal a major blow to Western energy interests,’ he said, referring to the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan oil pipeline. He added that Iran had begun ‘testing Azerbaijan’s pulse’ amid rising tensions, and these games had not stopped.

Brzezinski also believed that possible military operations against Iran could reignite conflict zones in the South Caucasus, noting that Russia would likely exploit such a situation to launch another attack on Georgia. He warned that even routine military exercises could turn into real combat amid regional instability.

He further emphasized that the strengthening of Islamist groups in the Caucasus had become a tool for Tehran to pressure Baku.

Another key factor Brzezinski highlighted was Iran’s Azerbaijani population:
‘Unfortunately, they are not yet capable of turning the wheel of events, but they are numerous enough to influence internal processes,’ he said.

Asked about the possibility of regime change in Iran, Brzezinski stated that the United States should ‘stay away from policies of regime change, as this is an internal matter of nations.’

More than 13 years have passed since then, and the situation described by Brzezinski has largely become history. One could even argue that the real reason behind the US not supporting Armenia during Azerbaijan’s 2020 war over Karabakh was linked to preventing threats from Iran’s clerical regime in a timely manner.

It appears that Iran also took this factor into account, declaring during the Second Karabakh War that it would not allow ‘geopolitical borders’ in the South Caucasus to change and labeling the Zangezur corridor a ‘red line.’ Today, Trump’s will—ready to strike that ‘red line’ with an ‘iron fist’—is in place, notably from the territory of Armenia, which Iran calls its ‘thousand-year brother.’

All these factors indicate that the US is indeed ready to change the course of events in Iran. The only missing element is the active involvement of South Azerbaijani Turks. According to recent information, South Azerbaijan is already awakening. In short, the mullahs’ fate is now in God’s hands.”