“In the upper echelons of the Israeli government over what the targets should be and how much Israel in general should press its military offensive into Lebanon and then also its response to Iran.”

Axar.az reports that Matthew Bryza, member of the Board of Directors of the Jamestown Foundation, former US ambassador to Azerbaijan, and international expert, said this in his statement.

In response to the potential Israeli retaliation following Iran’s missile strike, the expert highlighted that while the Israeli government is resolute in its intent to retaliate, the specifics of how, when, and where the counterattack will occur remain uncertain.The decision-making process is likely influenced by strategic considerations, aiming to balance military objectives with the broader geopolitical consequences.

As Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, as well as President Biden and his senior foreign policy aides, have stated, Israel will respond to Iran's huge ballistic missile attack on Israel, in fact, unprecedented in size. There is a debate happening in the upper echelons of the Israeli government over what the targets should be and how much Israel in general should press its military offensive into Lebanon and then also its response to Iran.

I think some senior Israeli officials believe that Israel should do everything possible to eliminate the full range of security threats it faces. So that means destroying Hamas, destroying the ability of Hezbollah to launch an October back into Northern Israel, and may include destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities. Others in the upper reaches of the Israeli government, however, disagree. They recognize that it is impossible to use air power to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities that are buried deep inside mountains in Iran.

In other words, bunker-busting bombs, like the one that killed Nasrallah, or the ones that killed Nasrallah are unable to penetrate those Iranian mountains. And these officials, I think, also recognize that even trying to target those elements of Iran's nuclear program that are more accessible would mark a dangerous escalation that could lead to a regional war that even draws in the United States in a war that Israel would have great difficulty winning.

And I think President Biden and Vice President Harris share that concern about being drawn into a war involving Iran should Israel escalate the level of targeting Iran's nuclear facilities.

So what else then might Israel target?

Well, it could target Iran's oil facilities, which would also mark a severe escalation that would lead to an increase in oil prices. However, there's a significant spare capacity in global oil production, 5 million barrels per day. And so it doesn't seem there would necessarily be an increase in oil prices that could jeopardize the global economy or lead to significant inflation in the US before the election. Or it may be that Israel, like after the April attacks, missile attacks of Iran on Israel, will limit its strikes to military facilities in Iran, just as Iran seems to have limited its attacks on Israel in April and just now to Israeli military facilities.

The ultimate target set…

So the ultimate target set will depend on the outcome of the debate within the Israeli government now, which is being shaped by pressure from the United States and its allies on Israel not to go after Iran's nuclear facilities.

It should be noted that Iran, in response to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, and the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) general Abbas Nilforoushan, launched a missile strike on Israel on October 1st. The attack resulted in the death of one Palestinian and left several others injured. The strike underscores rising tensions in the region, as Iran escalates its military response following the loss of key figures from allied groups, signaling further instability in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.