Russia believes that it does not need to outproduce Ukraine and its allies in weapons or defeat the Ukrainian army militarily. If the U.S. loses interest in the conflict and Russia is patient, it could still achieve its objectives.

Axar.az informs that this was reported by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S.-based think tank.

The report suggests that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin may reach his goals simply by waiting for the West to retreat.

At the same time, the CSIS noted that a recent statement by U.S. President Donald Trump—promising increased aid to Ukraine and new sanctions on Russia—is a significant step toward undermining this belief. However, it stressed that Trump must follow through.

“There are certain hopes in Russia—if U.S. support collapses, then Ukraine can be defeated. Strategists call this the ‘theory of victory,’” the report states.

Previously, the Kremlin pursued a “shock and awe” campaign aimed at eliminating Ukraine’s political leadership. This would have enabled pro-Russian forces to seize power with the support of invading Russian troops. In such a scenario, Putin believed he could capture Kyiv in just three days, the article adds.