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Analysis: Oil prices finally surged sharply

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The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil has risen by $3 compared to the previous day, reaching $77.48, while a barrel of light crude oil is selling for $73.61.

Axar.az reports that Israel's vowed reprisals on Iran, and the likely escalation afterward, have jolted energy markets. Following Iran’s large-scale missile barrage on October 1st, Israel is poised for a strong response. Many analysts believe Israel’s targets could include Iran's oil facilities, which would directly impact global energy prices. The potential for significant disruptions in oil production has already caused a spike in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching nearly $78 a barrel.

President Biden's comments about a possible Israeli attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure have further fueled concerns, although he has not fully endorsed such actions. The uncertainty has caused nervousness in energy markets that had been largely unfazed by the ongoing conflicts involving Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran over the past year.

Experts warn that Israeli strikes on critical Iranian oil-export hubs, such as Khark Island, could severely disrupt Iran’s revenue streams while causing global price hikes. The extent of these price surges will depend on the severity of the damage and how other oil-producing nations respond. Additionally, Iran could retaliate by targeting oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia or the broader Gulf region, further destabilizing markets.

In a worst-case scenario, Iran may attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil shipments. Such a move would have devastating effects on the world economy, with oil prices potentially skyrocketing to $100 a barrel. While analysts doubt Iran would pursue this course due to the global ramifications, the risk cannot be dismissed entirely.

Date
2024.10.04 / 10:24
Author
Axar.az
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