The United States plans to increase its activity in the South Caucasus in 2026, and the official opening of the so-called “Trump Route” is not ruled out.

Axar.az informs this was stated in an interview with Sputnik Armenia by Suren Sarkisyan, a political analyst and head of the Armenian Institute of American Studies.

According to Sarkisyan, the implementation of this project could be timed to coincide with Armenia’s parliamentary elections scheduled for June. He emphasized that when assessing U.S. priorities and interests in Armenia and the region as a whole, one should focus on the broader objectives of American foreign policy, rather than limiting the analysis to local Armenian realities.

“We tend to view the ‘Trump Route’ through Armenian lenses. In reality, it’s not just about Armenia, Azerbaijan, and regional communications. It is part of a larger project aimed at linking Central Asia with Europe while bypassing Russia and reducing China’s influence in the region,” Sarkisyan said.

The expert noted that the initiative primarily concerns the organization of energy exports from Central Asian countries to European markets, as well as the desire of European nations to reduce dependence on Russian supply and transit routes. In this context, the “Trump Route” is seen as one of several alternative logistics pathways for pipelines, transport corridors, and trade routes.

In the proposed plan, Armenia is not an end in itself but a component of a broader geoeconomic project. Its role goes beyond simply providing a connection between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan through Armenian territory.

Sarkisyan also pointed out that Central Asian countries have already been exploring alternative routes to access European markets while bypassing Russia and China, and that such plans have been discussed at various levels in recent years.

According to the analyst, a significant increase in U.S. activity in the region could occur in 2026.

Several visits by high-ranking American officials are also expected. Sarkisyan noted that in February, “a very senior U.S. official” could visit Armenia, without specifying the name. According to media reports, this could be Vice President J.D. Vance.

The formal opening of the 43-kilometer section of the “Trump Route” is also possible. According to the expert, Armenian authorities are interested in holding this event before the parliamentary elections, as it could be used in the election campaign. The active phase of the project is expected to begin in January–February and continue throughout the year.

Overall, an influx of investment, the launch of joint business projects, and a noticeable increase in American presence in the region are anticipated. U.S. activity in the South Caucasus is likely to become a significant factor in regional dynamics.