What is happening is linked to the escalation of long-standing internal contradictions in Yemen that had been managed through certain balances. In particular, the increased military and political activity in recent months of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), backed by the UAE, and the Yemeni government’s view of this as a direct threat to sovereignty have pushed the situation to a “breaking point.” The government’s demand that the UAE withdraw all its military forces and suspend the joint defense agreement shows that the diplomatic crisis is now unfolding in parallel with military tensions.

Axar.az reports that Middle East expert Vugar Zafaroglu said this in a statement while commenting on the tense situation in Yemen’s interim capital, Aden.

Zafaroglu noted that at this stage, the issue of actual control over Aden is ambiguous:

“Although Aden is officially considered the interim capital of Yemen, most real security and governance mechanisms are under the influence of the Southern Transitional Council. The presence of STC-loyal forces at the seaport, airport, and key military and security structures shows that the government represents political legitimacy, while the STC holds actual power. In this sense, Aden currently appears to be a city divided between two authorities.”

According to him, one of the realistic scenarios is Yemen’s de facto division into two parts. The strengthening of the Houthis in the north and the Southern Transitional Council in the south further weakens the model of a unified state. If the struggle for control over Aden turns into armed clashes, this could accelerate the formation of a de facto separate political entity in the south.

The expert said that in the near term, three main paths are possible: the official government attempting to strengthen its positions in Aden with Saudi support; the Southern Transitional Council more openly promoting the idea of an independent southern state; or forced political compromise efforts between the sides. However, the current dynamics are more inclined toward confrontation than compromise.

“What is happening in Aden is not a local security incident, but a clear sign of a strategic confrontation that could determine Yemen’s future state structure. How this process ends will depend not only on internal actors, but also directly on disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the region,” he added.