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Axar.az presents the article "Scenarios for Nagorno-Karabakh after Shusha's liberation" by Andrew Korybko:
The Azerbaijani Armed Forces gloriously liberated their historic city of Shusha from Armenian occupation on Sunday, finally righting the historical wrong that was committed against them nearly three decades ago but hitherto ignored by the international community. Shusha is extremely strategic because it's one of the largest cities in the occupied territories and also the dual gateway to the regional capital of Khankendi and the Lachin Corridor.
It took approximately six weeks, but the Nagorno-Karabakh Continuation War seems slated to conclude very soon. The Armenian occupiers have little choice but to accept their inevitable surrender sooner than later if they sincerely care about the remaining inhabitants of the occupied territories as they've thus far claimed. Extending the way any longer by refusing to withdraw from Azerbaijan's universally recognized borders will only increase everyone's suffering as the war continues until every square inch of land is finally liberated.
With this in mind, the Armenian occupiers are forced to make a fateful decision: they can either sue for peace after immediately withdrawing from Azerbaijani territory or keep sending their men into the meat grinder that it's become and face total defeat in the coming future. The first scenario would be better for all the civilians still caught up in the conflict zone, though it might end Prime Minister Pashinyan's political career. The second scenario, meanwhile, would keep his premiership alive for the short-term but inflict suffering on civilians.
It therefore convincingly appears as though a fait accompli has been reached whereby few doubt the inevitability of Azerbaijan's victory whether by political or military means. The only real scenario to discuss is how long it'll take for Armenia to surrender, what the terms will be, and how Azerbaijan will reconstruct the liberated territories after nearly three decades of their occupation, economic and environmental devastation, and total neglect from Yerevan (apart from sending more colonizers there for imperial purposes).
At this point in time, Russia should activate every lever of influence that it wields over Armenia in order to save its CSTO military ally from the utter humiliation of its impending total military defeat on the battlefield. Armenia is more than just one man and will of course survive as a nation even without Pashinyan in power, but its leader must be made to realize that it's futile to continue fighting. Average Armenians should become aware of this as well and consider protesting against him until he does what's right in the best interests of their ethnic kin.
The Armenians who decide to remain the formerly occupied territories after their full liberation have already been promised the highest respect for their human and cultural rights by Baku so there's no reason to fear a so-called “genocide” like the powerful Armenian diaspora lobby has tried to deceive the world into believing. Their lives will arguably be better than ever before if they remain in their home country of Azerbaijan (excluding, of course, the foreign colonizers) since they can count on experiencing the benefits of their region's reconstruction.
In fact, it's here where Russia could also play an important role. Russian businesses dominate Armenia and might have an interest in expanding their operations into the liberated territories pending Azerbaijan's approval of course. This could help maintain peaceful interethnic and international relations between the two South Caucasus countries and their people by contributing to physical reconstruction, providing much-needed employment, and laying the basis for a larger regional economic community with time.
The South Caucasus are therefore on the cusp of a far-reaching transformation after Shusha's liberation since the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is finally drawing to a close, and with it, a bright future for the region is dawning. It's therefore incumbent upon Pashinyan to accept this historical inevitability for the betterment of his people and their neighbours. The sooner that he surrenders, the sooner that the South Caucasus can focus on becoming the geostrategic transregional Silk Road node that it's always been destined to become.
2020.11.09 / 10:55