The deployment of a special border protection group from the USA to Armenia could have serious consequences for neighboring countries such as Iran, Azerbaijan, and Turkiye. Overall, the signing of this agreement has the potential to increase tension in the Caucasus region. Moreover, it appears to be a significant obstacle in the matter of opening the Zangezur Corridor.

Axar.az reports that this was stated by Turkish political expert Engin Ozer in an interview while commenting on the signing of the Strategic Partnership Agreement between the USA and Armenia in Washington.

According to him, the factors behind the signing of the agreement are Iran and China, which are long-time rivals of the USA:

"China's 'One Belt, One Road' initiative ensures connections to Europe through three main routes. The northern route, which passed through Russia and Belarus, has been closed due to the war. The sea route, which connected the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, has encountered serious problems due to Houthi attacks, forcing ships to navigate around the Cape of Good Hope. The real route is the so-called Middle Corridor, which envisions the connection of Azerbaijan's Zangezur Corridor to Nakhchivan. The USA is trying to hinder this corridor to weaken trade between Europe and China."

According to the political analyst, the signing of this agreement could escalate tensions in the Caucasus region:

"An Israeli operation against Iran is expected in the near future. In this context, these steps are being taken to prevent possible alliances between Armenia and Iran. Under Pashinyan's leadership, these alliances have been relatively weakened. A potential war with Iran in the near future will lead to changes in population movements in the region. A significant wave of refugees is expected after such a conflict."

According to Ozer, the deployment of a US border protection group to Yerevan is also undesirable for Armenia’s neighboring countries:

"The failure to open Zangezur will weaken Turkiye's connections with Central Asia and China. This is not a positive development for either Turkiye or Azerbaijan. However, physically, there is little Ankara can do about this issue. It is unlikely that Turkiye will show a strong reaction to this, as Armenia is a sovereign state and, just as it cooperates with the CSTO, it can also reach agreements with the US. It should also be noted that Turkiye is not eager to be actively involved in the upcoming Iran war. The recent anti-Iran propaganda in Turkiye proves this."