The possibility of war between Iran and the U.S.-Israel alliance (and countries dependent on the U.S. and Israel, such as Jordan, could also join) is currently very high. This war could have serious consequences for Azerbaijan.

Axar.az reports this was stated by Russian political analyst Sergey Markov while discussing the potential war between Iran and the U.S. and its negative impact on our region.

According to him, the biggest challenge would be related to refugees:

"Azerbaijan must prepare for a massive influx of refugees. The measures could be a harsh option – closing the borders tightly and not allowing anyone in, or a softer option – allowing women and children, or all refugees, to enter. It is clear that, for humanitarian reasons, it is difficult to refuse any refugee, but on the other hand, there are challenges related to their accommodation, feeding, etc."

According to the political analyst, several friendly CIS countries could assist Azerbaijan in this matter:

"I believe that Azerbaijan's friends, such as Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Uzbekistan, could help Azerbaijan during a refugee influx from Iran. And it is more appropriate to negotiate with these countries now for possible rapid assistance in the event of such an influx. Perhaps it would be better to prepare food supplies, tents for refugee camps, and special police units to ensure security in the areas where refugees would be settled."

Markov noted that the second challenge for Azerbaijan is dealing with the post-war problems of Iran:

"Azerbaijan also faces another problem if Iran collapses. This possibility is not zero. The U.S. and Israel are openly expressing their intention to divide Iran by autumn. Iran could be divided into ethnic groups – Persians, Arabs, Kurds, and Azerbaijanis. Azerbaijan needs to determine what it will do if Iran collapses and South Azerbaijan forms. A union with Azerbaijan is theoretically possible, but in practice, it would mean that the heavily Islamic population would absorb the currently secular, progressive Azerbaijan, and that poses a serious threat. It would be more appropriate to help South Azerbaijan in forming its state institutions. This will become a pressing need. And if the statehood of South Azerbaijan is established with the participation of Azerbaijan and its friends, such as Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus, it would be more appropriate.

There could be a situation where the statehood of South Azerbaijan is established by individuals who hold negative views toward Azerbaijan. This must be prevented. It is a difficult problem. And, in general, we need to think about this now. I believe that some consultations should already be held regarding how this situation will unfold. However, this should be discussed in a completely closed format, because Iran would not accept an open discussion about what should be done in the event of its defeat and collapse."