The Azerbaijani Airlines crash was confirmed to have been caused by an external factor, likely a missile.

Axar.az reports that this was stated in an exclusive interview by the war analyst and airline pilot, Denys Davydov in an interview with the Kyiv Post.

Incident Analysis and Evidence

Evidence from the crash site includes shrapnel on the tail and debris consistent with missile fragments, matching damage patterns seen in previous air defense incidents. The Russian Pantsir-1S air defense system is suspected.
Flight data was unavailable due to Russian electronic jamming, and malfunctioning navigation systems in Grozny forced the crew to attempt a non-precision approach. The pilots executed multiple go-arounds before losing hydraulic control, likely managing the aircraft using engine thrust. Their decision to divert to Aktau was logical given the terrain and potential civilian casualties elsewhere.

Russia's Role and Response

Strong evidence suggests the crash was caused by a Russian air defense missile, likely in response to Ukrainian drone activity. Russia has denied responsibility, consistent with its behavior in past incidents like MH-17. The country’s failure to properly close airspace during military operations has made civilian flights increasingly vulnerable.
Historically, Russia has deflected blame for similar events, citing causes like bird strikes or engine failures. This pattern highlights a dismissive attitude toward international norms and accountability.

Broader Implications

Davydov emphasizes that Russia's negligence and military aggression pose significant risks to civilian aviation, urging airlines to avoid Russian airspace. He advocates for stronger pilot training to handle hydraulic loss scenarios and more robust international sanctions against Russia to enforce accountability.
Without greater global action, incidents like this crash—and broader violations of international norms—are likely to continue.