The Kremlin will make no concessions on the status of Crimea and Donbas, and the upcoming trilateral summit is expected to produce “not lasting peace, but a strong ceasefire.”

Axar.az reports Russian professor Andrey Zdrojevski stated:

“Putin’s demanded security guarantees are vital for Russia’s existence. NATO’s eastward expansion poses a potential threat to Moscow. Unless the U.S. and Europe recognize this ‘red line,’ any agreement reached will only amount to a temporary ceasefire.

Among European leaders, there are differing positions. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron stress the importance of security guarantees, while Germany emphasizes that progress is impossible without a ceasefire. This divergence in strategy is being closely watched in Russia, and how the guarantees for Ukraine will be implemented remains uncertain.”

Zdrojevski also noted that the status of Crimea and Donbas is among the most critical topics of the summit:

“Ukraine’s de facto control over these regions has already ended, and recognizing this in diplomatic documents will be difficult. Lasting peace requires acceptance of the current reality. Land swaps or status adjustments will be among the toughest issues of the summit, and the Kremlin will not make any concessions on this matter.”