A few days ago, an unidentified UAV that entered Turkish airspace was shot down by our F-16. Let's assume that this was a coincidence. What about the Russian "Orlan-10" UAV that was captured in Izmit?

Axar.az reports that this was stated by Turkish military expert Abdullah Agar.

According to him, the sequence of events weakens the possibility of coincidence:

“The UAVs sent by the warring parties can change direction due to reasons such as technical malfunctions. This is a normal state of war. It has been observed frequently in the Karabakh war and, especially, in the Ukrainian war. However, such a sequence of events raises the question: Does someone want to send a message of infiltration into Turkish airspace? Or could someone have the intention of transferring tension to the Black Sea?

As I mentioned, the shooting down of a UAV in our airspace could be considered normal. However, the discovery of the “Orlan-10” UAV in Izmit immediately after that changed the situation.

Because the “Orlan-10” is not an ordinary platform. This is a UAV capable of electronic warfare, signal reconnaissance, air defense, radar surveillance, and data transmission. The fact that it fell in Izmit, which is very close to Istanbul and is densely populated with industry, transport, logistics, military, and civilian infrastructure, is thought-provoking.

It also suggests that after the first downed UAV, there was a “technical "malfunction, which weakens the idea. In that case, the question arises: where was the UAV launched from? Could it be from ships in the Black Sea?

I consider it highly likely that this is not an actual attack, but a strategic "pulse check. The possibility of provoking the Black Sea, asymmetric provocation, is also high. Because the Ukrainian war has reached a stalemate on land. Russia - NATO - England also love the space. Also, the Montreux Convention is a lock in Turkiye's hands. The war creates pressure on the Baltics and Central Europe. Russia's target is Europe and England.

The expert also commented on what will happen if tensions increase in the Black Sea:

“If tensions increase, Turkiye may be forced to 'choose a side. ' Montreux will come under pressure. However, there is no direct attack on Turkey here. It is just that Turkey’s decision-making algorithm, will, and behavior are observed from the outside. So, what is the most dangerous possibility? If these events do not become isolated, but rather a series, then this can be considered a major geopolitical trap.

Note that this process occurred immediately after the Ukrainians shot down Russian ships near the Turkish coast, the Russians shot down Turkish ships in Ukrainian ports, the crash of our C-130 aircraft, and Turkiye finding itself in the middle of four wars. But it should be noted that the Ukrainian war is not our war. This war is between Europe, England, and Russia, which use NATO for their own interests and want to do so.

The main issue we need to see and pay attention to is preventing the war from spreading to Central Europe and the Baltics, spilling it over to the Black Sea, and involving Turkiye in the war. "It is an attempt. What you are facing is not a "coincidence", but it is not "the beginning of war".

This is a light touch operation on Turkiye's nerve endings. Every reflex given to these touches will determine the direction of the next stage. Therefore, the main issue is not the threat itself, but how the given reflex is recorded in the strategic memory."