Russia is approaching the limits of its volunteer recruitment system for the front line, which is increasingly forcing the Kremlin to consider another wave of compulsory mobilization.

Axar.az reports, citing The Kyiv Independent, that the first “partial mobilization” announced in September 2022 followed Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region.

At the time, the Kremlin mobilized around 300,000 reservists, which triggered protests and a mass exodus of Russian citizens abroad. Since then, the authorities have sought to avoid another large-scale draft, focusing instead on recruiting contract soldiers and prisoners for military service.

The article notes that this model is now beginning to weaken.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, around 70,500 new soldiers signed contracts in the first quarter of 2026, significantly below the Russian Defense Ministry’s targets. Experts say this is the lowest figure in the past three years.

The report also highlights that the issue is being worsened by Russia’s heavy battlefield losses. According to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Russian losses could reach between 325,000 killed and up to 1.2 million total casualties by the end of 2025. This means Moscow would need to recruit more than 30,000 new soldiers per month just to compensate.

Analysts also note that the Kremlin is already increasing indirect pressure on the population. Students are being targeted for military service, workplace recruitment quotas are being adjusted, and draft notices are being issued to reservists under the guise of medical or administrative inspections. Experts, therefore, believe Russia’s situation is becoming increasingly difficult.