Most likely, the status quo will remain in the Armenian-Azerbaijani processes for about 2-3 years, which seems quite possible and realistic.

Axar.az reports that this was stated by Matthew Orr, an analyst on Eurasian issues from the American intelligence and analytical center "Stratfor".

He does not believe that war is inevitable, as there are no sharp incentives at the moment that would lead one of the sides to consider taking emergency measures for a drastic change in the situation. The expert did not rule out that Azerbaijan may continue and intensify attempts of military pressure through shelling along the line of contact. "But I do not believe that a major war is inevitable if a deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia is not reached," he added.

Orr explained that in general, if Azerbaijan intends to start large-scale military actions, it would be more preferable to carry them out in the summer or late summer. "However, I repeat, we do not believe that Azerbaijan sees the need for this at the moment. Most likely, they think they can achieve their goals through pressure, and it is believed that there is still room for maneuver and a deal. This will not necessarily happen soon, there will be continued pressure attempts, so the unstable situation will persist. However, we do not believe this will escalate into a major military confrontation," he emphasized.

Recent statements by the President of Azerbaijan about a corridor through Armenia and the "Crossroad of the World," according to Orr's assessment, were not an announcement of war. He clarified that this indicates that the transit through Armenia and Zangezur Corridor is a key condition for a peace agreement for some, but this does not mean it will necessarily be included in the peace treaty. However, there should be a framework agreement on this outside the treaty.

"Aliyev believes that he is in a strong position, which is why he makes such statements. The Armenian Prime Minister recently stated that the issue of an extraterritorial status for the corridor cannot be discussed, but if it concerns special conditions for transit through Armenia, a compromise may be reached, and if there are concessions from Azerbaijan regarding the 'Crossroad of the World' and other routes, there may be room for maneuver and compromise. We believe that there is still room for maneuver, and a compromise may be reached," Orr suggested.