Ukraine has agreed to the U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, but only on the condition that Russia simultaneously accepts and implements the agreement. In response, Washington has promised to resume military supplies and intelligence sharing.

Axar.az interviewed Russian political analyst Yevgeny Mikhailov for insights on the matter.

- The ball is in Russia’s court. How will Russia respond to Kyiv’s agreement to a ceasefire?

- I believe the Ukrainian regime has no choice but to agree to a 30-day ceasefire. However, as you said, the ball is in Russia’s court, and everyone is now waiting for President Vladimir Putin’s response. Personally, I strongly doubt that we will agree to such a deal. A massive grouping of Ukrainian forces is essentially trapped in a pocket in the Kursk region. We intend to completely destroy it in the coming days and drive Ukrainian military units out of Russian territory.

At this point, Kyiv is willing to agree to anything to prevent the destruction of its 10,000-strong force. That’s why I doubt that hostilities will be paused. There may be room for some kind of compromise—meaning we eliminate the Ukrainian forces in Kursk, achieve additional tactical goals elsewhere, and then consider a possible pause in fighting. But again, I’m skeptical.

We have been deceived too many times. We will not give the Kyiv regime a break to regroup, especially given the continued promises of U.S. support, including intelligence sharing. If we pause now, they will recover, rearm, and attack again. That is unacceptable to us. I believe we will take a long pause before issuing any response, as the Americans have found a loophole to shift responsibility onto Russia. They are essentially saying, "Only if Russia agrees." I expect Moscow to delay its response, given our history of being misled in negotiations.

- Will Russia continue efforts to improve relations with the U.S. after this?

- In any case, Russia will continue working toward better relations with the U.S. However, that doesn’t mean we will immediately accept the conditions put forward by Washington and Kyiv and rush into agreements like some weak, dependent country. In reality, it is the U.S. that stands to benefit more from improving relations right now.

At this moment, it is the Americans who need to establish a dialogue with Russia because their primary strategic rival is China. The U.S. must determine where Russia stands—whether it will distance itself from the ongoing U.S.-China confrontation.

That said, we will act on our own terms, prioritizing Russia’s national interests. What happens next remains to be seen. But there is no need to try to intimidate us. In fact, the more pressure the U.S. applies after the conflict, especially with conditions that are unfavorable to Russia, the worse it will be for Washington. We will endure, gather strength, and ultimately prevail.

- How do you see the end of the conflict in Ukraine and when do you think it will happen?

- I see only one way for the conflict in Ukraine to end — complete demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, full acceptance of Russia’s conditions. Naturally, this includes the loss of territories — those territories claimed by the Russian Federation. There will be no half-measures. Russia will not accept a Ukraine that is preparing for the next confrontation, one that is being armed by the West to fight against Russia.

Moreover, Kyiv’s shift does not necessarily need to be pro-Russian, just neutral. And, of course, the persecution of the Russian population and the church must end. There are many conditions, and we are strong now, and we must achieve this.