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The future consequences will not harm Azerbaijan but Europe

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The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) concluded that Azerbaijan has "not fulfilled major commitments" since joining the Council of Europe 20 years ago. A resolution was adopted today with 76 votes in favour, 10 against, and 4 abstentions. PACE claimed that there is a concern about Azerbaijan's ability to conduct free and fair elections (Claiming that Azerbaijan did not invite the organization to send representatives to observe the special presidential election in the country, the separation of powers, the weakness of its legislature and executive systems, the independence of the judiciary, the humanitarians and human rights concern over the Nagorno-Karabakh situation.

Axar.az reports that Dr.Frank Musmar, academic researcher, expert on Middle East geopolitics, bestseller writer, and Chairman of the Advisory Board, said these words in his statement.

Accordingly, Azerbaijan is considering exiting the Council of Europe if the rights of its delegation in PACE are not restored within a year, claiming that the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has been turned into a toy of France and the Armenian lobby.

PACE resolution has no ground to support any of the claimed points against Azerbaijan and contradicts many resolutions and political stands from the same voters on the resolution, including France. Previously, the UN Security Council has reaffirmed the need to protect Azerbaijan's territorial sovereignty and emphasized that Nagorno-Karabakh is an integral part of Azerbaijan. European countries, led by France, voted in favour of these resolutions. Moreover, Nagorno-Karabakh was occupied by an authority of the self-proclaimed separatist entity that is unrecognized by any country, including Armenia, who encouraged the residents to leave after being liberated by Azerbaijan.

The future consequences will not harm Azerbaijan but Europe. Europe depends on Azerbaijan as a key player in energy and international transport. The region's stability is vital to Europe's overall equilibrium, especially if Europe wants to avoid handing over its economic and political influence solely to Russia and China.

In 2022, Azerbaijan exported 11.4 bcm of gas to Europe; in 2023, this volume increased to 12 bcm. Azerbaijan exports gas to Europe from the Shah Deniz field via the Southern Gas Corridor and has plans to raise exports to 20 bcm/year by 2027 under a Memorandum of Understanding agreed with the European Commission in July 2022. Moreover, UK supermajor BP started gas production from the East-North flank on 13 February (The Largest BP's Caspian Sea's first subsea development operated subsea infrastructure worldwide, according to the company) as a part of the field's $28 billion second development phase.

Considering the fair election, the last election in Azerbaijan represented a mature election system that it was the first election that has been held on the entire territory of Azerbaijan with 6,320,500 registered voters, and a total number of 49 polling stations were set up in 37 countries; mobile voting boxes were set up to enable sick people and older people to vote during the election process and ensure election transparency, 65,000 observers from 19 political parties accredited and monitored the election, and 512 international observers from 70 countries and 49 international organizations was certified for the election.

France's influence on the PACE decision was immature, contradictory to France's interests, and driven by lost influence in Africa and the Russian-Ukrainian war. To understand that Armenia has two allies: Russia and Iran. Neither country is on good terms with France and other Western countries. To highlight this point, Armenia utilized the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, playing the victim and actively sabotaging Russian efforts to control the situation to praise Western efforts, which are purely demonstrative and not even entirely pro-Armenian, except when the right spin is attached to them.

It is rather comical unless you are an Armenian immersed in all the non-stop propaganda. The Armenian propaganda describes the deployment of the Russian Forces as betrayal, while the deployment is killing and looting on the side of Azerbaijan. In reality, the status of the Russian troops there is peacekeeping, which means they're not authorized to take sides. At the same time, Armenia is begging the EU and NATO to send their troops, supposedly to replace the Russian betrayal, and running to support anti-Russian speeches from Western politicians, which are very opaque concerning the fundamental Azerbaijani-Armenian situation. It is very comical because Europe considers Nagorno-Karabakh to be Azerbaijani territory.

The West will never side with Armenia against Azerbaijan and Turkiye, both heavily supported by the US as a counterweight to Iran. Besides, Azerbaijan has oil, and Armenia has nothing. Also, if the Armenians think that Azerbaijan's territorial claims will be limited with Karabakh, they are dead wrong.

The problem with Armenia is that it has very little geopolitical importance and has become a sentimental value that has chosen to turn into a scorpion on top of the frog in the stream. Armenia's new supporters will change the relationship with Azerbaijan and USA. Azerbaijan and the United States belong to several international organizations, including the United Nations, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank. Azerbaijan observes the Organization of American States and the World Trade Organization. Azerbaijan also participates in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's Partnership for Peace program.

Moreover, Relations between the United States and Azerbaijan have historically centred on energy transit, most significantly the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Southern Gas Corridor. Officials in Brussels see the importance of diversifying energy imports away from Russia and considering Azerbaijan a reliable partner in the bloc's renewed emphasis on energy security. Azerbaijan's geography is a gateway to the countries of Central Asia and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, which provides the inverse opportunity for Central Asian countries to reduce dependency on transit through Russia to the European market. Washington's strategic interest is to help develop alternative trade routes cooperating with Azerbaijan between Europe and Central Asia that minimize opportunities for Russian malign interference.

Date
2024.02.29 / 16:38
Author
Zuleykha Aghasieva
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