Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visited Lake Urmia and announced that measures are being taken to address the lake’s drying up. Pezeshkian’s visit, which took place in Tehran’s governance during the "Kurdish separatism" period, appears as a "positive message" to Azerbaijanis.

Against this backdrop, Iran's law enforcement agencies present the events in Urmia, including the arrest of Azerbaijanis, as 'a plot against the Islamic revolution being prevented.' Iranian media refers to the events as a 'Pan-Turkish conspiracy,' and claims also suggest Turkiye's involvement behind the scenes. Interestingly, Kurds are not fully defended either, with claims that some are attempting to 'create ethnic conflict' among them.

All of this – the scenario of confrontation between Azerbaijanis and Kurds – aims to make all groups in Iran dependent on central government control. For the Tehran regime, the most frightening scenario is the unification of ethnic groups, particularly the larger ones – Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Baluchs, and Arabs. While these groups may have conflicting positions regarding national identity, the prospect of uniting against the regime has always remained relevant. The 2022 hijab protests, where Kurds and Baluchs united, was a real example of this, though the regime’s 'escape route' was Azerbaijanis’ lack of involvement. However, the tightening circle around Iran, especially with the expected actions of the Trump administration, has forced the regime to activate its 'divide and rule' policy internally.

The 'Kurdish separatism' plan in Urmia can be viewed in this context:

- Compensating oppressed Kurds in the Kurdistan region by providing opportunities in South Azerbaijan;
- Long-term demographic plans are being implemented in the region with the Kurdish factor: this also aims to create a 'demographic buffer' against Turkiye on the border;
- The prospect of ethnic groups uniting against the regime is hindered, while dependence on the central government is strengthened.

This scenario carries risks, though the Iranian regime has limited options.