Iran faces an unprecedented strategic crisis as it confronts simultaneous domestic unrest and credible threats of external attack. The Islamic Republic has lost the mechanisms that historically allowed it to survive wars, sanctions, and protests.

Axar.az reports that, in an article published by The Guardian, the author examines Iran's prospects.

Domestically, years of economic decline, corruption, and mass emigration have fueled bold anti-regime protests, including the violent January crackdown that left thousands dead.

Externally, US and Israeli military pressure, highlighted by Donald Trump’s deployment of an “armada” to the region and Israel’s open airstrikes, has undermined Tehran’s regional deterrence.

Three main scenarios loom:

Forced compromise – Iran agrees to a US-imposed deal limiting its nuclear program and regional influence in exchange for sanctions relief, preserving the regime but at high political cost.

Controlled war – Targeted US strikes aim to cripple Iran’s military and nuclear capacity, likely triggering regional escalation and prolonged instability.

Uncontrolled collapse – Combined internal unrest and external pressure fracture the regime, producing a power vacuum and long-term instability similar to Libya or Syria.

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