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Axar.az presents the interview with political analyst Andrew Korybko:
– As you know, Armenia once again fired rocket attacks on the city of Ganja. There are civilian casualties, including children. The Azerbaijani authorities and foreign experts classified this act of aggression as a war crime. What other countries have resorted to such a barbaric method of warfare, and how did it end for them?
– These attacks are being carried out by Armenia because it's losing on the battlefield. It desperately wants to force the Azerbaijani Armed Forces to stop their counteroffensive, but it also hopes that if they don't, then they'll respond in a similar way and thus risk drawing Russia directly into the war through the CSTO. Either way, it's a desperate and cowardly action, a real war crime.
– Azerbaijan returned under its control a number of regions and settlements. The army fulfils the tasks assigned to it. What do you think was the decisive factor in achieving this ability?
– Azerbaijan had nearly thirty years to rebuild its military and turn it into a regional power to be reckoned with. There's also an important intangible factor and that's the fighting spirit of its forces. They're very passionate about liberating their occupied territories. The Armenian side, however, is militarily weak though they hope to leverage their geographic advantage in the mountains to halt the advance and perhaps even carry out guerrilla/sabotage/terrorist operations there if they lose. There are Azerbaijani citizens of ethnic Armenian origin fighting in support of the separatists, but they're doing so because they've been indoctrinated with the dual ideologies of “Greater Armenia” and “victimhood”.
– In your opinion, why, despite the evidence, does the Armenian media continue to convince their own that, they say, a little bit more and we will almost reach Baku. After all, it is already clear in Armenia itself that their claims to Karabakh have come to an end.
– The Armenian media is tasked by their government and its foreign diaspora patrons with reinforcing the dual ideologies that were touched upon in the last answer, specifically the cause of regional expansionism through genocidal means. For historical reasons, some can argue that Armenian society is inflicted with an “inferiority complex” which in turn is exploited to encourage those who experience it to wage wars of aggression in order to “prove themselves” and make themselves “feel better”.
– Russia and the CSTO countries did not help Yerevan, despite its tearful requests. Even France, which at first was going to "prevent Azerbaijan from returning Karabakh," became surprisingly accommodating. What is the reason, in your opinion?
– The CSTO is de-facto controlled by Russia and it's unrealistic to imagine its members unilaterally or in coalition with one another minus Russia carrying out some action in the name of the organization. Russia is very concerned that officially rushing to Armenia's defence under the CSTO banner as it wages its war of aggression against Azerbaijan might dangerously risk provoking a war with Azerbaijan's Turkish NATO-member ally. As for France, there are geographic and logistical limits to its practical support of the Armenian military. The only option is an emergency shipment of equipment and troops through Georgia, which might not allow such overflights if Turkey and/or NATO-leader America object to it (the latter for whatever its reason maybe). In fact, even if America approved of this scenario, Turkey might still likely object to it and could threaten to take unilateral action to stop such flights.
– By the way, the United States, despite the strong and numerous Armenian lobby, also decided to limit itself to appeals and stock up on "political popcorn." Even wiggling the famous Kardashian's hips didn't help much - what is a million dollars in modern warfare? And here just another question is brewing: the Armenian lobby could collect much more funds. Why is there a modest 120-150 million? And not at least 2-3 billion?
– More funds might be forthcoming if the Armenian lobby succeeds in its dangerous misportrayal of this conflict as a so-called “clash of civilizations” like Pashinyan himself recently described it is, which is a euphemism for a seemingly inevitable war between Christianity and Islam which in reality isn't inevitable at all. There's a strong undercurrent of right-wing sympathy sweeping across Western nations at the moment which the Armenian lobby hopes to exploit for Islamophobic purposes related to raising funds for their military's “clash of civilizations”. As it stands, however, very few politicians anywhere in the world outside of Armenia are paying credence to Pashinyan's dangerous misportrayal of the conflict since they seem to understand just how irresponsible it is to provoke inter-religious violence.
– And in conclusion: in your opinion, what will be the new reality after Azerbaijan's victory in this war?
– The world now realizes that Azerbaijan's legitimate concerns over its territorial integrity, separatism, and terrorism cannot be ignored any longer. The country is now regarded as more than just “energy-rich” or “geostrategically positioned between Russia, Iran, and Turkey” like most unaware observers simplified it as being, but is now considered to be a military power in its own right. Its successful military campaign proves that even comparatively lesser-known countries can make a disproportionate impact on global events like Azerbaijan did. Baku reminded the world of the same four UNSC Resolutions that Yerevan failed to implement for nearly three decades, showed that it's fighting on the frontlines against the “Balkanization” processes that threaten the already destabilized international system, and proved that terrorism has no religion (unlike how many wrongly tried to associate it exclusively with Islam) after everyone saw the acts of state terrorism that Armenia committed against Azerbaijan. This is the new reality that the world must contend with.
2020.10.20 / 10:58