Following the Israeli and U.S. aggression against Iran, the South Caucasus is gradually drifting out of Russia’s sphere of influence.

Axar.az reports that this was stated by Russian analyst Stanislav Tarasov in an interview with Armenian media.

He noted that serious problems periodically arise in Azerbaijan-Russia relations, and Armenia is rejecting Russia’s mediation in negotiations, discussing withdrawal from the CSTO, closer ties with the EU, and the normalization of relations with Turkiye and Azerbaijan:

“The last component is viewed as the final stage of the South Caucasus moving out of Russia’s influence, a process that hinges on Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine issue.”

Regarding a possible Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting in Dubai, Tarasov believes the leaders will most likely focus on the agenda of lifting the regional transport blockade. He recalled Erdogan’s recent statement and hinted at Armenia’s initial opposition to the Zangezur Corridor:

“We don’t yet know the exact approach, but it does suggest that a certain consensus may be emerging.”

Tarasov added that if the meeting happens, it would mark a continuation of Baku and Yerevan reaching agreements without Russia’s mediation:

“How Russia will respond to all this still remains unclear.”