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Yerevan is in a difficult situation: serious threats

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Large-scale borrowing of a country with a small economy such as Armenia creates serious threats to the country's economy.

Economist expert Natig Jafarli said this in an interview to Axar.az, speaking about the increase in Armenia's foreign debt.

According to him, the potential of Armenia's economic model does not have the opportunity to repay the debt:

"The only opportunity is to return to other locations, borrowing and repaying debts. In addition, it is time to return nearly 3 billion Eurobonds that happened 3 years ago in Armenia. Most likely, they will re-issue government bonds with their debts to other debts. This will increase the debt burden and cause the debt to be charged. At present there is a rather risky situation for the Armenian economy. Most likely, they will either seek help from the European Union or they will try to obtain financial assistance as a result of certain negotiations with Russia in the former order. The Armenian economy is not capable to raise this burden itself."

The expert noted that the increase in the volume of foreign debt could weaken the position of the Pashinyan government in the future:

"So far, elections a few time passed after election in Armenia. As the real problems arise after the end of the "revolution" euphoria in the Armenian society, Pashinyan's prestige will start to decline as the problems affect the pockets and the way of life of the population. For example, since January 1, the price increase in Armenia has accelerated. At the moment, we see inflation in the regulated prices as well as from food to clothing. In fact, Armenia's current government insists that the government can be changed through democratic elections. Recent elections also show an example. If such a crisis occurs, the Pashinyan government may go to extraordinary parliamentary elections in order to check public confidence or prevent further revolutions and coups. In this case, external influences can be Russia's role. If the new government of Armenia is increasingly taking steps that contradict the interests of Russia, there are quite a few russia in the country that could mobilize them and create a new public movement against the Pashinyan government. The Pashinyan government also frequently states that if such a thing happens, it will seek re-election and regain confidence. In the future, there are likely to be many mixed and interesting processes in Armenia. As the economic difficulties increase, this turmoil is also expected to increase."

Let's note that the Armenian government has actively started to increase domestic borrowing. At present Armenia's state debt is $ 6,934 billion. Earlier, the Armenian press reported that official Yerevan was planning to borrow about half a billion foreign borrowings a year and to raise public debt to 7.4 billion.

Date
2019.04.16 / 15:39
Author
Isko Babazade
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